Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (21552)	3/28/2000 1:05:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> I expect this quarter to be excellent, the next quarter possibly a bit slower. I'm impressed; you've actually done some dd on your own; couldn't you con Merlin into doing it for you <lol>? I understand your purchase of the LEAPS now; your persuasive friend actually convinced you that AMD was in the game. >> BTW, for all SNDK investors out there, I gather AMD's flash operations are looking very good... AMD was honored at Cisco's Vendors' Day last fall for their excellent performance in flash. That certainly seems to be their strength. Otoh, I'm not sure they've made a plugged nickle selling microprocessors. You may have a winning stock pick, but in a sector you hadn't considered <vbg>. uf

To: tekboy who wrote (21552)	3/28/2000 2:31:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Respond to of 54805

Intel vs. AMD First Tekboy, let me say that you hold full responsibility for the following snippet of bloat<VBG>! The proposition that your friend posed at least merits thought. I'll weigh in with some history and current gut feelings. Although I've owned both in the past, I own neither now. AMD I could always trade for making profits since they always reliably imploded (usually with help from Intel). Anytime Intel tanked, I could count on them to execute well and recover. This play worked really well for nearly 10 years. Then AMD started screwing up<g> by sustaining their wins longer. Going after the low end was a smart move. It forced Intel to go down into the muck and slug it out. That was the first astute marketing maneuver I ever saw out of AMD (the Raiders of the Lost Ark poster was however "way cool!"). That coupled with AMD subsequent ability to actually put out advanced technology ahead or at least concurrent with Intel was a dramatic shift in the playing field. This put margin pressure on Intel's leading products much earlier than has ever happened previously. I'm not ready to proclaim that the above alters the G&K positions occupied by each, but if AMD is still a monkey it is 3 standard deviations above the mean. So when it runs through the jungle it probably sounds a lot like a chimp. I still believe Intel is the big dog and very much in control of its tail. Their production capacity has to be at least 10x (probably more like 20x) that of AMD. Even if all computer companies wanted to shift to AMD, it would take at least two years (forgetting about where the capital would come from) before they could add any significant capacity. That is an eternity in this field. Moreover there are truly distinct differences internally as to how these companies operate. I have friends at both companies and let me assure you that both have bright and capable employees,but...Intel has a level of discipline unknown at AMD. Intel is the Prussian Army vs. AMD's collection of gunslingers. Intel's system is one of careful strategic execution designed to avoid catastrophic blunders. AMD's approach is(was?)far more opportunistic and fluid. This may have been the right culture given the situation, but I think a transition needs to occur if they want to evolve to the next level. AMD will not be able to approach the cost controls exhibited at Intel without instilling far more discipline. The destabilizing factor in the Intel - AMD relationship is that for the first time AMD may enjoy longer periods of higher margins. This may indeed provide fuel for capacity growth in the out years and may actually slow Intel's growth during the interim. The question is "can they transform the culture enough?" My guess is that they will not as long as Sanders runs the show. Unfortunately, I'm not certain enough about that to place my bets like in the past. A new terrain is best observed before being crossed. FATBOY

To: tekboy who wrote (21552)	3/28/2000 7:44:00 AM
From: Len	Respond to of 54805

<<AMD's flash operations are looking very good>> Havn't seen it posted here but I have heard that AMD is in the process of spinning off their flash business. I do not know what the relationship will be between the two. perhaps they are just creating a separate sales channel. It would make sense for AMD to create a separate channel since that would increase their costs thus diminish their profits. Very consistent for AMD, <gg> Anyone know anything? Len