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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Clarke who wrote (16416)	3/28/2000 9:51:00 AM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

The electorate---- vox populi, vox dei? gallup.com POLL RELEASES March 22, 2000 One in Five Americans Unaware That Either Bush or Gore Is a Likely Presidential Nominee Independents and young people least informed by David W. Moore GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite intense media coverage of the recent presidential primaries, one in five Americans cannot name either George W. Bush as the likely Republican nominee or Al Gore as the likely Democratic nominee for president. According to a Gallup poll conducted March 17-19, less than a week after both candidates had clinched enough delegates to win their respective party's nomination, just two-thirds (66%) of Americans could correctly name both candidates when asked in an open-ended format. An additional 8% could name Bush only and 6% could name Gore only, while 20% were not able to name either candidate. Americans who were unable to name the two front-running candidates did not mistakenly assume that John McCain was the Republican nominee and Bill Bradley the Democratic nominee. Just 2% of all respondents named McCain and 1% named Bradley as the likely winners of their party's nomination. Instead, people who could not name Bush and Gore mostly did not have any idea about who the nominees are likely to be. Just 5% guessed someone other than the correct person in each party, including McCain and Bradley, while 20% expressed ignorance of the Republican nominee and 23% had no idea who the Democratic nominee might be. Independents Least Likely to Know Candidates Awareness of the two candidates is highly related to strength of party identification, as people who identify with a party are more likely to name the candidates than are people who only lean to a party, or people who reject either party label. As shown in the table below, 80% of Republicans and 68% of Democrats can name both candidates. Among those who "lean" to either party, about six in ten can name both candidates -- 58% of "lean" Republicans and 64% of "lean" Democrats. However, among people who do not identify with either party, who think of themselves as independents and do not lean toward either the Republican or Democratic parties, only 39% can name both candidates, while 47% can name neither. These results point to the fact that compared with people who identify with one party or the other, independents tend to be less involved in the political process. Their lack of commitment to a party is accompanied by a much lower tendency than that of party identifiers to pay attention to political news and a much lower likelihood of turning out to vote. Party Affiliation Overall Republican Lean Republican Independent Lean Democrat Democrat Knowledge of Candidates % % % % % % Know both candidates 66 80 58 39 64 68 Know only one 14 11 15 14 14 17 Know neither candidate 20 9 28 47 22 15 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% The table below shows the differences in awareness of the candidates by gender and age. Males are more likely than females to know that Bush and Gore are the likely nominees of the two major political parties. Among the youngest group of adult Americans -- those under the age of 30 -- less than half can name both Bush and Gore, compared with two-thirds of Americans in the 30-49 age range, almost eight in ten of the pre-retirement group, and seven in ten of those who are 65 or older. Gender Age Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Knowledge of Candidates % % % % % % Know both candidates 72 61 45 67 79 71 Know only one 13 15 22 13 8 14 Know neither candidate 15 24 33 20 13 15 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Knowledge of the candidates is also highly related to both income and education. Not surprisingly, education is the more important factor, as college-educated Americans are considerably more likely than are those with a high school education or less to be able to name the two nominees. But income is also -- and independently -- related to awareness of the candidates, suggesting that the higher the economic pressures on a family, the less likely people are to pay attention to politics and the news, regardless of their level of education. Percentage of People Who Can Name Both Bush and Gore as Their Respective Party's Nominee for President -- Compared by Education and Income Annual Household Income Level of Education Less than $20K $20K-<$50K $50K+ High school or less 45% 50% 70% Some college 68% 63% 76% College graduate 75% 85% 92% Survey Methods The results reported here are based on telephone interviews conducted March 17-19, with 1,024 adults. For results based on the whole sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Copyright¸ 2000 - The Gallup Organization