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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (25786)3/28/2000 2:50:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 68399
 
Transports:

09:57 ET ****** UAL Corp. (UAL) 58 1/2 +1 1/2: It was an earnings warning in January, but today, it is a positive earnings surprise for UAL Corp. Recall that a few months ago, UAL Corp. said that due to higher fuel and labor expenses, along with a reduction in available capacity, its fully distributed earnings for 2000 would be between $7 and $9 per share versus a then First Call estimate of $9.95. The ensuing response wasn't a pretty one as shares of UAL got knocked back 13% that day. Well, that guidance hasn't changed at all, and perhaps that is why UAL's stock hasn't responded more positively to UAL Corp.'s acknowledgment that it expects first quarter fully distributed earnings per share to exceed the top end of its previously forecasted $0.80 - $1.20 range. That excludes one-time charges tied to the asset write-down and losses related to subleases on non-operating aircraft and a change in accounting principle. Now, UAL Corp. anticipates Q1 earnings to be in the range of $1.25 - $1.40 with the better than expected results being attributed to continued growth in the domestic economy that has led to strong passenger demand, improvements in the domestic pricing environment (i.e. higher fares), and a marked improvement in the airline's Pacific traffic, namely in Hong Kong and Japan. Accordingly, total unit revenue growth is expected to be 6.25% to 7.00%. That said, fully distributed unit costs are projected to be 7.00% higher than the previous year due mainly to higher jet fuel prices. Not surprisingly, other airlines have traded higher on UAL's news, but the enthusiasm appears to be tempered, and it is likely to continue to be held in check as long as as there are reservations about the domestic economy remaining strong given the Fed's tightening bias, and lingering concerns about the high cost of fuel.-- PJO

Fianncials:

08:45 ET ****** Bank One Corp. (ONE) 32 closed: This bank hasn't done much right in the eyes of investors lately, but yesterday, it made an announcement that has helped it get back in the good graces of investors for the time being. That announcement was that Bank One had named James Dimon, a former golden boy and heir apparent at Citigroup, as its new Chairman and CEO effective immediately. In doing so, Bank One gave itself some new visibility on Wall Street considering it had fallen off the radar screen after several earnings disapppointments tied to a faltering credit card business, and a seeming lack of competence on the part of management. The depth of that disappointment was reflected in the fact that its stock bottomed at 23 13/16 on February 24 after hitting a 52-week high of 63 9/16 in May 1999. Of course, the CEO search began last December when John B. McCoy stepped down in the wake of those repeated earnings warnings and amid talk of his inability to successfully integrate the First Chicago NBD factions into the current Bank One Corporation. His departure also heightened speculation that Bank One, the fifth largest bank in the country, was a likely takeover candidate given its depressed stock price and other management departures. Based on what Mr. Dimon said yesterday, though, investors can put that notion out of their head as Mr. Dimon noted that he wants to make Bank One a "strong predator, not prey." His first priority then will be to get the Bank One house in order. Already he has proclaimed that all top management will report to him, that the First USA credit card business is not for sale, and that it is important for Bank One to lower its costs. In the meantime, Mr. Dimon will be raising his own costs as he plans to buy two million Bank One shares out of his own pocket. Excuse the digression, but maybe in the process he can also float the the Tribune Co. some extra cash so the Cubs can get a better pitching staff. Undoubtedly, Mr. Dimon has a tall task ahead of him, but he is young, competent, and well respected on Wall Street. That combination should bode well for Bank One shareholders as Mr. Dimon has a reputation to protect, and he knows the best way to do that is to produce the results expected of him. Given the proper time, we suspect he will and that is why Bank One is looking like an attractive investment again for the first time in a long time.-- PJO

Optical:

SDL Inc (SDLI) 214 -3: First Union Sec initiates coverage with a STRONG BUY rating and 12-18 month price target of $360. Recent acquisitions expand SDLI's market opportunity. Company has critical mass and the currency to remain an independent supplier and alternative "white knight" in the industry.
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) 125 1/2 -3 1/4: First Union Sec initiates coverage with a STRONG BUY rating and price target of $225. Synergies from from proposed ETEK merger are likely to result in estimate revisions upward.
Corning Inc (GLW) 206 -3: First Union Sec initiates coverage with a STRONG BUY rating and a price target of $300. Stock is undervalued.
CIENA Corp (CIEN) 153 3/4 -3 11/16: First Union Sec initiates with a STRONG BUY rating and a price target of $225. Trials of CoreDirector are going well. With CIEN trading at 20x CY01 revenue estimate, it is at a significant discount to Sycamore (SCMR).
Vitesse Semi (VTSS) 104 1/16 +8 1/8: -- Update -- Adams Harkness upgrades to STRONG BUY from ACCUMULATE with a 6-12 month price target of $188. Lucent (LU) is now using VTSS' multiplexer and demultiplexer physical layer ICs in its Wavestar OC-192 platform.
Vitesse Semi (VTSS) 104 3/4 +8 13/16: CIBC Wrld Mkts reiterates STRONG BUY and ups price target to $150 from $100 after the acquisition of Orologic. Combination of Orologic's traffic management solution with VTSS' TeraPOWER network processor will allow VTSS to eventually offer a complete end-to-end solution.

DSL:

Westell Tech (WSTL) 36 7/16 -1 9/16: Kaufman Bros reiterates STRONG BUY with price target of $65 after yesterday's announced deal with Fujitsu Telecom Europe Ltd. With DSL build-out activity only just beginning in Europe, expect Fujitsu Telecom Europe to contend for a number of major contracts across Europe.
Orckit Comms (ORCT) 79 3/4 +9 1/2: Oscar Gruss upgrades to STRONG BUY from BUY; with price target of $126 after the company announced the acquisition of Silicon Valley Ltd.

Efficient Ntwrks (EFNT) 163 3/4 -7 13/16: -- Update -- Frost Securities reiterates BUY rating with price target of $201 after this morning's announcement of the acquisition of NetScreen Technologies; a positive development for Efficient?s competitive positioning as it is enhancing its DSL solutions by integrating value-added software and services.