To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30998 ) 3/31/2000 3:17:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
Going back to SPM supports.. <<Tuesday, Mar 28, 2000 11:00 AM ET Reply # of 31020 1535-38 good support in this melt up process still in its embroynic form, next support is 1518-22 not easy to find supports in a break out, the resistance is at 1545-46... those are broad parameters.. DOW Comp harmonic convergence shall continue. I think so..>> After taking out this 1518 area we were last night at 1502, that is the most critical and a break of that will determine the fate of Comp, if we get this 1502 broken we can inter day but on two closing basis this break will lead to 4400 being taken out on Comp and a door opened to next support at 3800-4000 area, I think we need to close above 4520 the 50 days mA to have a good move on Comp, we can see some false rallies but the real raly has to come from DOT and IIX, those two indexes have to recover, otherwise a sustained drop for more than five sessions in IIX will lead to much more selling, today is the day of reversal for those who are now leaning on a snap back tradtional rally, to get that going GS 5% decrease in cash has to be changed to 10 % increase in equities, the problem these marketing guys in most of these firms don't understand is that 5% reduction in terms of cash allocation on basis of vlauation can lead to 20% correction, . Look at this simple equation.. if you are at small company and have a cool 1,000,000,000 $ to manage in the market and 70% is invested, to bring your equities to 650,000,000 $ a reduction of 5%, you need to sell 50,000,000 $ now as market drops by 10% in the mean time your 700,000,000 $ invested is already 630,000,000 $ on revised allocation after a 10% fall 65% of 900,000,000 $ is 585,000,000 $ so what was your benchmark of 650,000,000 originally has to be changed to 585,000,000 that means more selling to maintain 65% of equity exposure in a falling market, that is what happens we see oversold levels although so far no sign of that but undoubtedly market is setting itself nicely to take good earnings and above 4590 one can look at individual top class stocks,, like ORCL TXN NOK..for quick trade..