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Strategies & Market Trends : Working All Day, But Trading Behind the Bosses Back Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark[ox5] who wrote (775)	3/28/2000 8:13:00 PM
From: Mark[ox5]	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 779

Gotta love this market: the VoIP area... Clarent[CLRN] which is the leader in this huge area gets rocked today (-10%) while its #1 supplier Audiocodes (AUDC) rockets up 25%+ A 3rd tier house downgraded Emulex (EMLX) and it drops 1/4 of its value in 8 hours. Was there an accounting restatement? No. Did they lose a key customer? No. But you had the lemmings all jumping ship together-- boy it tilts the ship sideways very suddenly doesnt it? Basically the latter example is simply the danger of our current NASDAQ market. I think most individuals are "intelligent" enough to realize what has happened the past 5 months is (insert word here) crazy? once in a lifetime? unprecedented? etc... they know just about everything they trade in or own in technology is overvalued by any traditional or even non traditional means ever devised... so ANYTHING with a hint of negativity around it brings huge, violent downturns in individual issues. Basically the same thing that has moved these stocks up in such a mind boggling fashion kills them on the way down and it hurts everyone. In the most basic sense its a Ponzi (sp?) pyramid scheme... I buy it from you today, you buy it from me tommorow $15 higher, and I'll buy it back from you again in 3 days $30 higher. As long as there is another guy willing to play the game (i.e. sucker) we go up. But its been going on for so long, the downturns are now vicious as all these people who in their heart know this is all amiss are all in the same 1 aisle line to get out the door. Don't get me wrong, I am not talking about the Priceline.com's, the PurchasePro's, Red Hats, the biotechs.. I am talking about quality companies such as PMC Sierra [PMCS], Veritas [VRTS], RF Micro Devices [RFMD], the list goes on... quality companies... stud companies, with possible niche dominance... but the bottom line is total detachment from fundamentals has taken place over the past 5 months. There is no way to measure even these great companies in any rational way. Price to Book? Thrown out 5 years ago Dividends? What? Price to Earnings? Thrown out 2 years ago Price to Revenue? Thrown out over the past 5 months You have co's with 20 million in lifetime revenue trading at $8 Billion Market cap... and going up 20% a day... even at those outrageous valuations... So now you trade on business models and hot words such as "semis", "ecommerce", "infrastructure", "wireless"... all sectors I agree.. I love... but I loved them 5 months ago when they made some sense, now you just trade and hope the bottom doesnt fall out, hoping all the lemmings dont come to their senses as one. And you get day's like today with Emulex... even when you have researched trying to find "value" and sense in the "lesser known names".. unfortunately they get thrown out with the bathwater too.. so you lose on that end too. {Go away Clarent [CLRN], down down you go Triquint [TQNT], sink little Anadigics [ANAD], I barely knew you Harmonic [HLIT], die Gemstar [GMST] die!) This is the game we play now, and really with more and more individuals coming to market on a daily basis with no groundwork in "fundamentals" why will it change? Good question.