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To: GVTucker who wrote (101698)	3/28/2000 6:42:00 PM
From: Gerald Walls	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Actually, that 1.7mm bbls includes Iran. The ex-Iran increase is 1.452mm bbls. I wasn't clear. It seems that the Iranians want an increase of only 1.65 million barrels and the rest of the OPECers want 1.7. If you include the current level of production in excess of existing quotas, this translates to a real increase in OPEC production of about 250,000 bbls. If they're already cheating to the tune of nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, then why won't they continue to cheat? Maybe the cheating will drop to 1,000,000 barrels per day, though. Instead, I primarily am saying that exploration in the Middle East has been minimal, and thus production capacity has declined with the normal decline rate of existing production. Was OPEC producing flat out before their cutbacks?