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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dpk who wrote (39011)	3/29/2000 1:10:00 AM
From: add	Respond to of 93625

Total Fully diluted Shares outstanding is at least 26.3M . See my post# 37758 for the details. Noone should be using the current 23.8M shares becuse all the warrants and options are already deep in the money! In addition, there were 3M option outstanding as part of the employee stock option program at the end of Sep. 1999. If we assume that 2/3 will vest and be exercised then in 2003, we should assume 28M shares outstanding at that time. This results in a 17% reduction in per share numbers. An often overlooked detail, but important in this case ! Long and Stong on Da Bus!

To: dpk who wrote (39011)	3/29/2000 2:08:00 AM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

PE is not as good an valuation technique as free cash flow. In fact there is little correlation between PE and stock price. There is a correlation between stock price and free cash flow. I think in your calculation you are not counting RDRAM controller chip royalties which are between 2.5 and 5% per chip. So, I believe you be happy to find out that your estimate is simply a lower bound on the stock price. :)

To: dpk who wrote (39011)	3/29/2000 8:27:00 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Revenue forecasts From the Rambus site, Rambus is using the IDC/DQ forecasts of ~50% share of 2003 DRAM market of $60 billion, or ~$30 Billion for Rambus memory. A number of assumptions are implied, the main being that Intel and the box makers will have converted a large percent of production to Rambus based systems and the price/performance of RIMM's being attractive to the consumer. Considering that servers are speculated to be DDR based, the number of desk tops must be heavily Rambus. One can make the case that for at least the next 12 months Rambus penetration will be relatively low. I understand Intel's new chip sets and mother boards, (810/810E/815) are all PC133 DIMM based products. I understand the 815, (Solano), is the replacement for the 440BX devices. These products fill the "Value" and "Performance" categories. Note also these new products support Intel's transition from Slot1 to the FCPGA CPU which I hear is expected to be completed by year end. I also understand the transition of the 820 from Slot1 to FCPGA is targeted for 2H00. According to the info published at the IDF, the Intel 820 motherboards will be 2+2, (2 RIMM and 2 DIMM sockets). These will be targeted at the high end desk tops/WS's and include a number of system enhancements. I believe the 2+2 configuration solves an inventory mix problem for the box makers. It basically allows the makers to respond to consumer demand for memory types using the same mobo product. I think it will be key to watch system performance of the 815/820 with DIMM's/RIMM's. JMHO's