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Technology Stocks : SILI - Siliconix -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dmccoach who wrote (88)	3/29/2000 1:34:00 PM
From: WTMHouston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152

Dan and Pluvia Glad to have ya'll in SILI. This price is almost too good to be true. I bought more today at $96 (and would have likely bought earlier today at a higher price except that I was not around). If the NASDAQ can keep from totally tanking until some tech earnings come out, there is going to be a lot of good money made in this stock. Annualized Q4 1999 EPS are 3.28, which means we have a current be on that basis of under 30. I still expect SILI to report at least $1.03 this Q and $5.14 for FY2000. The $1.03 annualized is $4.12, or a current PE on that basis of 24. The current PE on likely FY2000 EPS of $5.14 is 18.7. All of this is for a stock that grew EPS over the last 12 months at 350%, increased revenue around 50%, has a trailing book-to-bill ration of 1.14 as I recall, has more capacity coming on line later this year, is likely to again grow revenue by 50% this year, and is likely to grow Fy2000 EPS more than 100% over FY1999. VSH has said that SILI accounts for around 43% of its total revenue and that it expects that percentage to grow to 50% this year. VSH should grow its revenue this year by about 25%. That means SILI is likely to again grow its revenue this year by at least 47%. VSH 100 to 125 = 25% growth SILI 43 to 63 = 47% growth. VSH has already announced that they will report "at least" .53 a share for Q1, which is 26% sequential EPS growth above Q4 1999. With SILI's contribution increasing relative to the rest of VSH, a 25% sequential EPS growth for SILI is IMO 100% certain and 30-35% is within the realm of reason. My $1.03 estimate is based on 25% sequential growth. If they really blowout and make it to 35% sequentially, they could report $1.10. There is NO reason IMO to not be long this stock. It could easily see $200 by then first week of May when earnings are released, is more than 40% off its intraday 52 week high, and is likely to split again in the next 30-90 days. Troy