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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (100814)	3/29/2000 6:08:00 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 1571690

John, re: pricing in good news I think you may be right. We will likely have a pre news run up. It may be a good time to take some profits - i certainly intend to. If we get to $60 - 65 my apr calls will show a 100-150% gain. regards, Kash

To: Road Walker who wrote (100814)	3/29/2000 6:34:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1571690

John Fowler: Re: "I'm not just picking on AMD, I also believe INTC got ahead of itself." Comment: Once again, I do appreciate your concern.Risk is ever present no matter what the perceived context...No doubt many naysayers, including several on this thread, perceived Q4 record earnings of $0.43 as a one quarter wonder...no bandwagon effect...Record Q1 earnings on top of record Q4 earnings will convince most, if not all of the remaining naysayers, that AMD with its young champion Athlon and its world leading flash memory division is indeed for real...A close above $60, the upper boundary of the 5 year trading range, will confirm the reality of the AMD paradigm shift and usher in the bandwagon effect, taking AMD shares to heights well above $60! Imho, nothing but positive news is in store in the Q1 release, continuing the extremely favourable trend in place since the Athy came to market, a favourable trend that, imho, is destined to continue for the foreseeable future now that competitors are eating Athy's dust at the top-end of the market...a favourable trend that will become apparent to even the most cynical of AMD naysayers when Q1 earnings are released, if not well before their release... Like you, I do believe Intel may have gotten ahead of itself given my perception of very serious and continuing production snags that have befuddled management over the past 6 months...On the contrary, AMD is nowhere near where it should be based upon my perception of the ease in which AMD has climbed the MHz gradient from 500 MHz to 1000 MHz with its spry Athy in 8 months and based upon my perception of outstanding yields at all levels along the way! Q1 results for both companies will surely clear any misperceptions!

To: Road Walker who wrote (100814)	3/30/2000 12:46:00 AM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1571690

John RE: "AMD the world's leader in microprocessors and flash memory, its 2 largest divisions, will earn between $4.00 and $7.00 in Y2000. Q1 earnings will, imho, show that $7.00 is not improbable!" You are talking about year earnings, but folks are buying calls for Apr and May expirations. You have to admit, reasonable or not, there is a risk factor built into the value of AMD stock, they have disappointed in the past when things looked great. The bet you are making is that blow out earnings will convince the street that the risk is gone. If I remember correctly, AMD went down after blow out 4Q99 earnings. They sold the news based on the risk. I think there is a risk factor built into any tech stock but that risk factor has less to do with AMD's stock price and more to do with its checkered past. Having said that, I think there very good reasons why AMD will not repeat its past: 1. 1999 saw accelerated revenue growth for AMD and two quarters of EPS profit that were the largest in at least 5 years. The increase in revenue growth suggests wider acceptance of AMD profit and the two quarters of substantive EPS indicate that AMD is gaining control over its margins. 2. It has a pc chip product, the Athlon, that is very well designed, that has been well received and that is growing revenues very nicely for AMD. In addition it is spawning a family of chip products that only look to enhance and build upon the Athlon reputation. 3. With the boom in telecom in general and wireless phones specifically, the flash division is booming and can be expected to provide continued and growing support to AMD's bottom line growth for the remainder of the year. 4. AMD for the first time in a long time (and maybe for the first time ever) is very competitive with its largest rival and some might say has taken the lead in converting from aluminum to copper, a process expected to be of growing importance to the chip industry's future. RE: "No, AMD's current and future growth is not even nearly factored into a price of $50 to $55, but I think Q1 earnings will do much to address the anomaly between current AMD price and the present discounted value of future probable earnings!" Probable is the key word. I hope the street feels as confident as you do that strong earnings growth will continue. If they again sell the news, then at least the OTM AMD calls could expire worthless. I do not think that the improvements that are happening to AMD, the company, are reflected at all in the stock. I do not think that most of the street believes at all. While there has been some increase in institutional buying of late, I believe most of the runup in AMD's stock price is due to retail buying. I think when the street/institutions/mutual funds/hedge funds finally decide that AMD is an acceptable holding, we will see the stock price grow significantly. ted