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Technology Stocks : Wolf speed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wildhart who wrote (2540)	3/30/2000 6:38:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10714

Cree had already announced that they had a one year backlog of orders. Also, recall that LED sales grew 105% in the last qtr. So, in that light the 66% is not that impressive. Of course, "more than 66%" could mean anything. Anyway, this investor is expecting LED growth in the 100% range, i think your 105% is actually 103% increase in net profit reported last quarter...do not recall a specific figure for LED sales...except high brights were up 70%. do not know the base # for that 70%. making one assumption....when she says 1999, she means fiscal 1999. cree did 18 and 22 million in sales last 2 quarters (or 40 million total sales), which were the first two 1999 quarters. this means she expects sales to total 60 million this quarter and next. let's say 27 and 33 million...then add about 2 million in contract revenue to each quarter. remember, re the increase, we are talking high brites for cell phones and cars...that is cree's highest margin product. i believe LEDs were approx 50-60% of sales last quarter. she is telling us that LED sales revenues are going to lead sales increases this year...i also thought the remarks by cree's competition were compelling...certainly indicates huge pent up demand for LEDs. like fatboy, i would like to see a new SiC product announced soon...rf, microwave, power switch, or blue laser. i am not certain we will see that before substantial new SiC production capacity comes on line in june and october. i also doubt the new production capacity coming on line this summer and fall is included in her forecast....too early to count it yet, but it surely will help next year. jmho unclewest