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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (21761)	3/30/2000 5:16:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

A Rant--"Vision" investing is not Gorilla Gaming The more I've thought about this P/V thing over the last few days, the more I dislike the "Vision" thing. It seems to me diametrically opposed to Gorilla concepts. The hallmark of Gorilla Gaming is reducing risk. Gorilla investments rely on two elements that make them safer than other investments: (1) Managament has proven it can execute. They have proven this by getting into the Gorilla position in the first place. Look through the various sectors, and you'll see (possibly unanimously) that Gorilla companies have surperior managers--and this includes Oracle, whatever we think of Ellison as a person. (2) The gorilla's position and its IPRs give it room to make mistakes. A gorilla can miss a deliverable and still rule the roost. A gorilla can screw up a product ramp up and still survive. Contrast this with "Vision" companies: (1) Management has no track record. You can't be sure that the management team will be able to execute. That even includes proven managers from other areas. You can't be sure that managers successful in other areas will successfully grasp the tactical and strategic issues they face in the new arena. You can't be sure that the new management team will mesh. (2) There is no room to fail. If a vision company misses a delivery--such as delivering a new OC192 router 6 months late--it is dead. Game over. Vision investing and Gorilla Gaming ain't the same thing. They aren't even complementary. It is one thing to extend the Gorilla view to pre-chasm companies that have already established a track record. It is not appropriate to extend it to the "Vision" issue. Enough (of my rant). Best, John