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Technology Stocks : Emulex, What Prospects? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (284)	3/30/2000 11:02:00 AM
From: Neville H. J. Gorman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 788

Thursday March 30, 10:05 am Eastern Time RESEARCH ALERT - Emulex started as buy NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - Chase H & Q on Thursday started investment coverage of Emulex Corp. (NasdaqNM:EMLX - news) with a buy. -- Analyst William Lewis set a six to nine month price target of $200 for the company, which builds high-capacity interconnections that let computer networks handle more data. -- ``We believe (Emulex) revenue will continue to grow faster than the market, with increasing operating leverage from higher volume levels and 100 percent of revenues coming from Fibre Channel (FC) in FY01,' Lewis wrote in a research note. -- ``We expect the UNIX market to continue to drive the majority of FC revenue given the large installed base of systems, the current dominance of UNIX in enterprise applications and the high rate of penetration of FC in UNIX environments,' he wrote. -- Said recent 45-percent drop in stock makes for an excellent buying opportunity. -- Said expects company to exceed firm's FQ3 forecast of $0.19 a share. Shares gained 12-5/16 to 134 in early Nasdaq trading on Thursday. biz.yahoo.com

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (284)	3/30/2000 11:38:00 AM
From: jayray	Respond to of 788

EMLX UPGRADED 3/30/00 by NEED (at 11:06) to BUY. NEED says recent drop caused primarily by volatility in certain whisper expectations, EMLX is expected to meet/beat F3Q revenue & EPS estimates.

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (284)	3/30/2000 2:48:00 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Respond to of 788

Competition Builds in Web Infrastructure By James J. Cramer 3/30/2000 Competition just keeps heating up in tech, at a pace that blurs compared to the old days. One day Liberate (Nasdaq: LBRT - news) seems to have cable-box software to itself. Then you blink and Spyglass (Nasdaq: SPYG - news) is teaming with OpenTV (Nasdaq: OPTV - news) to get Liberate. So Liberate issues a huge amount of stock to buy More , which will make Liberate more competitive in the increasingly competitive cable-box-software industry. E.piphany (Nasdaq: EPNY - news) seemed to have its own niche in the customer retention and management business, as did Broadbase (Nasdaq: BBSW - news) . But Andersen Consulting and EDS (NYSE: EDS - news) want in big, and so does IBM (NYSE: IBM - news) , and what the heck are all of those people doing who used to do Y2K remediation work? Why, they are doing customer retention and management, too. So E.piphany has to buy two companies for billions, even though they have little in revenue, just to keep up with! the Andersens! We love Portal Software (Nasdaq: PRSF - news) as a billing company, but Amdocs (NYSE: DOX - news) got more competitive with its recent purchase of Solect , making the customer-billing business awfully tough overnight. Is that IBM trying to take a swipe at the hammerlock Exodus (Nasdaq: EXDS - news) has on Web hosting? For about a year, most of these companies had so much business that it didn't matter who moved in. I still think that is the case with Portal and Exodus (we remain long those stocks), but we can't ignore all of these big-time alliances. Competition means declining margins even when business might be booming. Of course, none of these recent mergers can immediately impact earnings of others, because of difficult integration issues and disruptions of sales forces. And business on the Net remains so strong and robust that you won't see any revenue slowdown. But it creates doubt where doubt did not exist, which means that it creates sellers where sellers did not exist. Whereas you could dismiss all of this insider selling in these companies as people wanting to take something of the table, now we worry that they are selling because business has gotten tougher. So why not sell when competition hits? Because Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO - news) had competition and it won. Because Sun (Nasdaq: SUNW - news) had competition and it won. Because Intel (Nasdaq: INTC - news) had competition and it won. Because Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT - news) had competition and it won. If we think Exodus is going to win despite IBM, we can't sell our Exodus. If all we ever did was sell Intel every time AMD (NYSE: AMD - news) or Nat Semi (NYSE: NSM - news) or Motorola (NYSE: MOT - news) announced an initiative, we wouldn't have made much money on our second-best-performing stock for 13 years (after Microsoft.) But we need to know why people sell, and we need to keep our eyes on the level of competition to ensure that it doesn't get too great, causing shortfalls. Why do we care so much? Take a look at Emulex (Nasdaq: EMLX - news) yesterday. The stock dropped 57 points because a Morgan Keegan analyst talked about new competition -- competition, by the way, that we don't even regard as serious. We don't like losing 57 points. We like to get out before our stocks lose 57 points. You can't do that if you ignore the budding competition coming to the Web infrastructure businesses. biz.yahoo.com I never could find that Morgan Keegan reoprt. Jack

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (284)	3/30/2000 10:36:00 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Respond to of 788

Emulex Up 6% On Bullish Chase H&Q Note Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Shares of Emulex Corp. (EMLX) gained Thursday after two days of losses caused, in part, by a Morgan Keegan & Co. analyst's downgrade. Robert Montague cut his rating on the supplier of network-access products Tuesday, citing his belief that growth in the fibre channel data storage sector would be driven by the Windows NT market rather than the UNIX market where Emulex derives a substantial amount of revenue. However, on Thursday, Chase H&Q analyst William A. Lewis initiated coverage of Emulex with a buy rating, saying he felt UNIX, and not Windows, would drive sector growth. In his report, Lewis said Emulex is the market share leader in "Fibre Channel HBAs" for networks targeting both UNIX and Windows. Because Emulex has dropped "45% from its recent highs," Lewis thinks it is a buying opportunity, and expects the company to exceed Chase's third-quarter 2000 earnings forecast of 19 cents a share. He put a $200 price target on the stock, but did not specify a time frame. Shares of the Costa Mesa, Calif., company trade at a premium to the company's peer group, the note says, and Emulex maintains approximately 40% of the "Fibre Channel HBA" market. Recently, Emulex traded at 128 1/2, up 6 13/16, or 6% on volume of 4.5 million compared with average daily volume of 1.4 million. Shares reached an intraday high of 140, down from its 52-week high of 225 1/2 reached Monday. Shares closed that day at 218. After the Morgan Keegan report Tuesday, shares closed at 160 15/16, and at 121 11/16 on Wednesday. Emulex, Costa Mesa, Calif., officials were not immediately available for comment. -K. Maxwell Murphy; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5173 This article from the wsj.com filled in some blanks. No time frame for a stock. Must be kidding me. Jack