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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chic_hearne who wrote (100939)	3/30/2000 11:08:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574094

chic hearne: Re: "Say AMD ran at 100% capacity for one entire year producing more high margin parts than it is now. With its current fabs, how much revenue would that be? In other words, what's the maximum renenue AMD could take in without expanding?" Comment: Using Q4 revenues as a benchmark and rounding up a bit, $1 billion in Q4 revenues would imply $4 billion in annual revenues...Of course $4 billion would be conservative as microprocessor ASP is only going to rise by about $0.20 per quarter ($100 million/quarter) owing to the increasing percentage of higher priced Athys in the mix going forward! Without expansion and factoring improving ASP going out $4.5 billion might be attainable...Imagine the revenue increment when Dresden gets into full production!

To: chic_hearne who wrote (100939)	3/30/2000 2:39:00 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 1574094

chic, re:<Say AMD ran at 100% capacity for one entire year producing more high margin parts than it is now. With its current fabs, how much revenue would that be? In other words, what's the maximum renenue AMD could take in without expanding?> Without major construction, just buying semi equipment and hiring more people, AMD could do 5K wafers/week in Dresden and 3K in Fab 25, reserving 40% for expanding Flash. Assume AMD gets 165 Athlons/wafer (31400/105 * 0.85 wasted space 0.65 yield) and each Athlon sells for an average of $150, they would get $24,750 per wafer 8000/wk * 52 weeks = 10,296,000,000 in revenue. Oh heck, the new TBirds are a little bigger, maybe they can only make 8 billion $$$$$. Petz

To: chic_hearne who wrote (100939)	4/3/2000 10:34:00 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1574094

Re: what's the maximum revenue AMD could take in without expanding? Most of AMD's current parts are around 100mm2. They're going to be adding transistors, but shrinking the feature size, so the die size may not change much. AMD's theoretical capacity for 100mm2 die from the two FABs, figuring 11K wafers/week, a yield of 60% and an edge loss of 10% is about 24 million per quarter (from Austin and Dresden). If AMD brought its ASP up to $150 (Intel is presently over $200), and sold all those parts, its annual revenue from CPUs would be $14.4 Billion. AMD has a lower cost structure than Intel, the scenario depicted above requires no new plant, about a thousand new hires at Dresden, and some more silicon ingots, marketing dollars, etc. It's not gonna happen, but in such circumstances AMD would probably net $7 or $8 Billion. With a share float of 150 million, that's $46 per share earnings. Even with a multiple of only 25 that gives a stock price of $1,150. Enough fantasizing, my oft repeated estimate is $9 earnings and $280 stock price for the end of this year. Paul's estimate is lower (I think he expects a loss). The reality will likely be somewhere between the two. Regards, Dan PS - You might also note that AMDs yields may be better than 60%, and that Dresden was supposed to be layed out to allow for easy expansion to 4 times the current size. On the other hand, actual capacity and theoretical capacity usually differ a great deal. Intel is cranking out up to 1 million coppermines per week from each of 5 FABs, and the parts seem to dissipate like the morning fog on a sunny day. Maybe the other 4 FABs produce a hundred thousand parts a week, each?