Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nevin S. who wrote (24595)	3/30/2000 11:24:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 25960

Nevin, it is quite simple, total chip shipments last year was just under $170 B, lets even say that this years shipments will be $200 B, when an industry is spending 10% of sales on equipment (and cap ex are much larger since the equipment part is only a portion of the cap-ex) you run into cash flow problems. The current rate of shipments of equipment (at about $1.75 B per month) already puts us above that 10% of sales, and the current booking at $2.3 B or so puts us at 14% of expected chip shipments, it just cannot go much higher, IMHO. The peak may be here, or it maybe six months out, but I think that the majority of the upmove in the equipment sector is behind us and when I get in, I look at relatively (relative to the sector)undervalued situations (CYMI and VECO for instance) and I keep a keen eye on the exit door. Zeev Zeev