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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (22924)	3/30/2000 2:56:00 PM
From: JLS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

It's not holding.

To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (22924)	3/30/2000 3:14:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

The problem I think a few are facing is that when I called the top to the tech stock market 2 weeks ago, some doubted me and didn't go heavy enough into 3 letter, Dow, cyclicals, etc. And still others agreed, but failed to make a big enough rotation. For instance, if we kept 50% techs. . .and went 50% into 3 letter issues. . .and the 3 letter issues held their own. . .but the techs lost 25%, then we lost 12.5% overall. A better play would have been going 25% cash and 50% 3 letter. . . however, the best play would have been hedging our portfolios by shorting the QQQ or other such devices, along with moving into 3 letter value plays. . . Fortunately, many that have been here longest, have come to realize that the truths we discover on this board are very real. . . and traded accordingly. . . thus are not hurting so badly as the cyclicals, Dow stocks and other 3 letter value plays hold up their portfolios in the face of the bottomless Nasdaq. Look closely at what you did and what you should have done. . . take this time to learn from your mistake. . .you will have to make this same decision many more times this decade. Today could be the biggest single day decline in the history of the Nasdaq. My mistake so far was in holding several more core positions than I did last year. Last April, I sold out nearly all tech cores until the market bottomed several months later. So by keeping as many core positions as I have [only about 8]. . . it would take about double the 3 letter stocks [about 24] with their modest gains. . .to keep the portfolio even. . . the issues I kept. . .ADAP, SVNX, LPTHA, QCOM, etc. had some ridiculous double digit declines. . .so even a small amount held, led to large losses. . .until they bounce. . .and the bad news is that the bounce will be VERY narrow. . .and may not include these same issues. Second mistake was getting too heavy in value tech plays and not selling their peaks. . . AOL, TWX, CPQ, etc. . . they will be back. . .but what a hit they took. But I plan on jumping into the bouncing techs, when I see enough turn. . . thus hopefully catching several of the highest percentage gainers on the bounce. . . so the game is hardly over. Rande Is