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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (33197)	3/30/2000 11:39:00 PM
From: Kashish King	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

I'm not saying we are experiencing a repeat of the dial-up modem situation where competition suddenly became lean and mean while prices plummeted, but it's not that far off the mark, either. That's not a slam against CSCO, it's just an observation of the connectivity equipment market. I'm also not about to claim that CSCO's attempt to diversify will be their downfall, but it's happened to a lot of companies in the past. Let's just assume that everything goes along just swimmingly, that still does not justify the price by a long shot. Most of the arguments we're getting in support of the stock have nothing do to with the current valuation. The glowing comments were been made when the PE was a historically high 40, then again at 80, then at 120, then at 160 and now they use the same, ah, logic to justify a PE of 200 plus and a market cap of 500 billion while sales are only 15 billion. On a good day such a company would be lucky to get a valuation of 150 billion and that would be considered to be astronomical. Ladies and gentlemen, look how long it has taken a virtual monopoly like CSCO to reach the 15 billion dollar mark in terms of revenue. If they double that it will be truly an astounding feat. How are they going to get to 150 billion in revenue? How are they going to get from there to 250 or 350 billion. Even if they quadruple the staggering amount they now rake in, it would not justify the current share price. The arguments being made for the stock don't have anything to do with the current price. They will make the same arguments no matter what the price is.