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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader J who wrote (22963)	3/30/2000 6:12:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

I am playing "Early Bouncers" . . .those issues that are first to poke their heads up from each of the recent bottoms. . .with the play being both that investors perhaps want these issues most and are quick to buy them back first. . .and that some on Wall Street already know which issues will have the best earnings reports beginning next week. . .and are quick to buy these issues first on bounces. Regardless of tomorrow, I think we rally next week from here on the LEADING tech stocks. . . however, I fear that some medium caps and nearly all small caps and micro-caps will not rebound much at all. . . but will continue to sell-off underneath the markets. . . watch the Russell to start lagging the Naz. And watch any rallies over the next 2 weeks to be very narrow. . . holding issues that just won't take part could get really frustrating. I am only playing these the leading tech stocks on the swing into earnings frenzy. . . and plan on exiting BEFORE the street. . .leaving some money on the table once again. Not sure if you realize that we officially exited tech stocks two weeks ago. . .moving primarily into Dow stocks, cyclicals and value plays. . .however the decline this week even took its toll on those. . .and the few tech stock core positions we held, took a real beating. I see the summer doldrums returning mid-April. . .and that being even more a factor on what drives the markets than interest rates. After looking over the COMPX, I realized that I mis-stated something earlier. . .I said it didn't appear we had one of those 4-day margin call sell-offs. However, now I see that is exactly what we had. 4 days ago the Nasdaq was at 5000. It started to sell-off sharply. . . with the second day sharper than the first. . .which forced many margin calls. . . and these margin calls could result in liquidation of funds after 2pm on the 4th day. . . which would have been today when the Nasdaq was at the lowest and the volatile techs that many were playing on margin were eating dust. We have seen this trick twice before this year. . . and it has worked like clockwork. . . I can't believe I didn't recognize it this time. . .must be the leftover mouse droppings in my brain from my recent vacation to DisneyWorld. Now there is a chance that we will see another 1 to 2 pm dip, to accommodate those margin calls that went out the 2nd day. . .and cannot be liquidated until tomorrow. Now if all this sounds like a big scam against the individual investor, as perpetrated by the large Wall Street brokerages. . .I can't help it. . . this has become a leading indicator of market turns and if this turn holds into Monday. . .will have proven true 3 times. . .where you could simply trade by the clock. Mark Konrad gets the credit for discovering this phenomenon. Jeff, I like your views that the Fed needs to wait for recent hikes to take effect before continuing on their hiking spree. That makes good sense. . .and your 6 month lag time for effect to occur sounds about right. I too use margin primarily on intraday buying. . . covering before the bell. . . and agree with you that those trading on margin, without proper discipline have had their heads handed to them this week. Jeff, you are a fine trader and your views are always enjoyed here. . . Rande Is