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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (7712)	3/30/2000 9:11:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

One analyst on record. says CTXS will meet but not exceed. Citrix Falls on Fears It Will Miss 1st-Qtr Estimates (Update1) By Dina Bass Citrix Falls on Fears It Will Miss 1st-Qtr Estimates (Update1) (Updates with closing share price.) Fort Lauderdale, Florida, March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Citrix Systems Inc., a pioneer in adapting Microsoft Corp.'s Windows software to networks, fell 16 percent on concerns it will post lower-than-expected first-quarter results. Shares fell 13 3/4 to 72 1/8 in Nasdaq trading of 20 million, more than five times its three-month daily trading average. Investors are concerned Citrix won't meet revenue and earnings estimates for the quarter due to slower sales in January, said Michael Cristinziano, an analyst at Gerard Klauer Mattison who rates the stock ``buy.' The company declined to comment. ``There's valid concern that the quarter's coming together later than it typically does,' he said. ``January was weak in the entire industry. February was better and March better still. But the question is will March be strong enough to compensate for January.' Cristinziano, who expects Citrix to have revenue of $127 million and earnings of 19 cents a share, said the company will likely meet estimates, but not exceed them as it has in past quarters. Shares have gained 260 percent in the past year. Citrix is expected to post earnings of 19 cents a share, the average estimate from a survey of analysts by First Call/Thomson Financial. It's will report earnings next month. Fourth-quarter net income totaled $34 million, or 34 cents a share, on revenue of $118.1 million. Sales rose 56 percent from the fourth quarter a year ago. The Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based company specializes in software that allows companies to store application programs, such as business-management software, on networks instead of personal computers. Microsoft owns a 5 percent stake in Citrix, whose MetaFrame and WinFrame software works with Microsoft's Windows NT system to help run servers, the powerful computers used to operate corporate networks and Web sites. Citrix software can control most devices linked to a network, regardless of location, connection, or type of machine. This lets companies store programs needed to do business in a single location. The company also wants to sell software that operate devices such as handheld computers.

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (7712)	3/31/2000 12:09:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9068

Chuzzlewit and all, Now that I've looked at the numbers, I agree with Chuzz that it would be very difficult to make a case that the stock isn't overvalued. That's not a contradiction in which my previous comment was a guess based on not having reviewed the numbers and that, even so, that guess contemplated a "best case" scenario of the stock being fairly valued. But fairly valued, it ain't. Even if the earnings report comes in on target or even with a slight upward surprise, I won't be surprised if it takes a long time for the stock to achieve the previous levels. It rode the wave of a Naz that increased 85% last year and was at an annualized rate this year of about 250% just a couple weeks ago. And I also believe the stock is also on a wave of misperception about the near-term imapct of the ASP market. Once that misperception is more accurately understood, maybe sanity will return to the perception of the stock's value. Maybe. --Mike Buckley