To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10061 ) 3/30/2000 11:17:00 PM From: Ruffian Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
Salomon Smith Barney ~ March 30, 2000 Wireless equipment stocks have experienced strong growth over the last few years, but we believe the fundamentals for the group may be poised to, on the margin, accelerate. * Spectrum auctions underway in Europe will translate into four major catalysts that will occur over the next one to 24 months, driving excitement in the wireless equipment sector * In fact, order rates and backlog should once again accelerate to levels not seen since 1995 and 1996 when fundamentals turned up due to the spectrum auctions in the U.S. and Brazil * Ericsson is one of the most obvious winners along with Nokia, which will receive the added benefit of a change in perception from primarily a handset play to an infrastrcuture play as well * Motorola and its partner Cisco are gaining mind share in Europe * AirNet and interWAVE should be huge beneficiries as well * All routes lead to Qualcomm as the biggest winner of all * In short, concentrate on stocks with the greatest wireless exposure. This would include Ericsson, Motorola, Nokia and Qualcomm as well as smaller stocks such as AirNet and interWAVE. We believe there are four major catalysts to drive wireless stocks both on a near- and long-term basis. These are the issuance of 3G licenses in Europe, large contract awards for wireless infrastructure, revenue and earnings acceleration, and finally another acceleration in mobile phones. We recommend a basket investment approach in stocks with a large relative exposure to the wireless industry. Our top wireless stocks for 2000 are Ericsson (ERICY-1M-$85 1/2)#, Motorola (MOT-1M-$143 13/16), Nokia (NOK-1M-$208 1/16), and Qualcomm (QCOM-2H-$145 15/64). For those looking for more aggressive investments in smaller capitalization stocks with faster top line growth potential, we would also add wireless equipment suppliers such as AirNet (ANCC-1H-$34 3/8)# and interWAVE (IWAV-1H-$23 1/16) to our basket. QUALCOMM, THE HIDDEN AND THE BIGGEST BENEFICIARY OF ALL 3G NETWORKS A less obvious, but probably the biggest winner in 3G, is Qualcomm because it will collect royalties from every company that plans to manufacture and sell of 3G infrastructure and subscriber equipment based on CDMA technology whether it's CDMA2000 that has its roots in the United States or W-CDMA that has its roots in Europe MOBILE DATA DRIVES 3G Mobile data applications should grow this year as more carriers launch trials of enhanced services, while mobile data could explode to the forefront in 2001. We believe the growth in mobile data will play an important role in driving traffic and obviously in driving infrastructure equipment spending upward.