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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (44488)	3/31/2000 12:12:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, corporate and agency spreads to treasury notes and bonds widen recently ..... indicates fear of recession. AG thinks he can repeal the business cycle and change human nature ....... IMHO the worsed CB in human history from a historical point of view. May be short term he succeeded but the 1998 salvage and succession was his bigest mistake, and he continues to act in the same maner. Haim

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (44488)	3/31/2000 7:30:00 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<they print at an unprecedented pace!> Could they be anticipating some serious shortfalls and forced liquidations of stocks? Nah, that margin debt really isn't a problem <g> The fed is playing this like the guys in Apollo 13 -scrambling to make those last minute patches before re-entry.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (44488)	4/1/2000 5:12:00 AM
From: nihil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

You have to remember that M1 is hardly growing at all, M2 is growing moderately (`5%) and M3 is almost completely out of control. M3, and more important short T-bills are exploding because the foreign ownership is mushrooming because of Balance of Trade Deficits. For the average foreign bank, US T-bills are the preferred cash reserve and are as liquid as anything recognized as "money (i.e. Eurodollars)." As the Fed raises the short-term rates, foreigners shift more and more of their reserves into T-bills, which earn 3 to 4 times as much as their domestic short term paper. In effect, the more we borrow to pay for imports, the more money we create. Raising interest rates simply creates too much money and ultimately will drive up prices, unless we are willing to continue to expand our Trade deficit.