To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (63563 ) 3/31/2000 1:55:00 PM From: BigBull Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
Slider, for the next 2 months most of my moves have already been made. Minor tweaking is in order if I get very strong pops. Bottom Line: This cycle is bigger, stronger, and more long lasting than the last. Reasons: 1. More durable, longer lasting growth in emerging markets. 2. More disciplined OPEC with new leadership (Khatami/Chavez). 3. NG bubble gone. Period. 4. US economic growth path (based on demographics) strong till '09. 5. European growth strong to '11. 6. The emergence of China as a major industrial power. (4000 years of history argues for China re-asserting Asian dominance). If the thread is interested, I'd be happy to cover the story. All the above are firmly held convictions by yours truly. These beliefs are (in part based on unfolding facts) leading me to believe that the '97 cycle should be used with great flexibility as a yardstick. It should not be ignored, but it should not be viewed deterministically either. Every cycle is different. Keep an open mind, adjust to market realities. The ability to isolate the differences have separated the "men from the boys". I am in accord with you that some of leadership stocks here need to consolidate gains here. That alone may make the OSX level out over a period of weeks. However, there are tremendous trading opportunities underneath - this is where TA shines. Finally, I am coming to the conclusion that the US NG story alone will put a solid floor under OS issues. $3 NG is virtually unheard of in May. You are right, the NG story is being lost in the din of This OPEC meeting. This is why I am emphasizing stocks that are leveraged to that story but are not over extended. In OS land KEG stands out. Most of my trading profits will be ploughed into a sub 12 KEG on that basis.