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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (12911)	4/1/2000 7:17:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: " I'm still thinking that Bob's call for a bear or bear equivalent is basically on the S&P500." Yes, but he needs cooperation from the Naz to get 20% or more off the S & P 500 IMO. Interestingly, the Naz according to my data was up 7.33 in 1977 when the Dow went through its long slow 25% top to bottom bear market. The S & P 500 was down 11.20% for 1997 although I do not have the top to bottom data for the S & P 500. Re: "I'm holding my heavy S&P short hedge for now." I think the upside is capped here. Cohen helped to cap the upside. I think we will bounce off the mid SPY 150s or so. Re: " I'm worried about getting through April for now as I think with the lousy fundamentals the seasonally weak period that starts in May is likely to be down." I will be out of the market by then. Re: " I'm holding my heavy S&P short hedge for now. I'm worried about getting through April for now as I think with the lousy fundamentals the seasonally weak period that starts in May is likely to be down." I think the Street will start to realize soon enough that the Fed. could tighten throughout the Summer and after the election. Let's see ... they have to tighten to slow the economy down and then they have to look at inflation when we reach that slower growth rate to see if they have to tighten more just to reign in inflation. And then there is a lag effect on the economy to the tightening which we have not seen yet. Not exactly the kind of environment that could prove friendly to equities. Re: "I still would like the Dow to collapse as periods of relative strength in the NASDAQ over S&P seems to be when I do well and when the NAZ gets killed much worse than the S&P I have a problem." The Dow is most vulnerable here to interest rate concerns. I don't buy the rotational pops we saw here. Most likely it was due to portfolio managers balancing out their portfolios with lemmings jumping on for the ride rather than anything fundamental.