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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (7612)4/1/2000 10:09:00 AM
From: Hockeyfan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18137
 
Re: Volatility & Market Collapses

No wonder the volatility premium on S&P options is so high! I guess we are all getting numb to the wild fluctuations.

IMO Investor psychology is vulnerable here. Only 4 weeks ago investors were driving gene and other biotech stocks from $5 to $65 even though the realization of their future promise is 3 to 10 years out in some cases. Qualcomm is another example of euphoric optimism gone overboard.

Despite the threat of impending pullback we have demographics on our side. The 1960's and 1987 did not have baby boomers dumping $37 billion into stock mutual funds every month. Although foreign markets are looking increasingly attractive, for many the U.S. markets are the only game in town. Any move into 6.5% bonds is only temporary.

Although I think the biotech euphoria and extreme speculation is over, the "new economy" dominance over the "old economy" still persists. GDP is still strong - over 7% in 4Q99. Old economy stocks (and cash poor internet start-ups) are the ones being hurt by rising interest rates. Investors will ignore the more speculative, pie in the sky stocks in favor of a select few technology stocks that prove to be closer to fruition.