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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (98269)	4/2/2000 11:40:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Glenn, AMZN is in worse shape than FTL at 45 and the next year will be very sad for the speculation. A secondary issue would fail terribly and after the last below junk grade bond CAA3 issue fiasco another bond issue would be out of the question. I did notice that after J.B. said that losses were to decrease that the estimated loss will increase this quarter. Unless there is more creative income in the books division LOL...I never believed I would be defending AMZN. I have no confidence in their business model. I never liked the company and I have an emotional bias against it. Also, I have no position. I responded to one statement and that was the need to raise more funds for AMZN within the year. Unless, Amazon spends huge amounts in a build out of distribution centers in Europe this year, they will not need new cash. I do not see Amazon on the road to profitability nor am I anticipating that. The analysts are increasing losses. I highly doubt the profitabily of the book business in Q4 based on the numbers I put together. My response strictly was to refute a post indicating Amazon will tapping the equity markets again soon. I can and will say I have been very accurate on the financials of this firms. William and I differed on the the time table for Amazon to tap the equity markets this year. Either I was correct in their need, or Amazon believed the timing was right. Needless to say, William has been correct on the stock price and I have been incorrect. So there is no uncertainty, I am stating only Amazon will not be in the need of additional cash prior to fall 2001 unless they spend a lot of money on distribution centers outside the US. The increased loss estimates by analysts, if accurate, will not materially affect Amazon's cash situation. I have no plans to defend Amazon further. I have stated in the past the business model is flawed in my opinion. Economy of scale will not help. Management is not good except at moving the stock price. The elimination of on-line pure play competitors will occur due to the fact Amazon was able to raise more cash to last longer from the equity markets. The elimination of on-line pure plays will not be of help to Amazon. They will be replaced by stronger better capitalized traditional retailers and that problem is not going to go away for Amazon. That is how I feel about the company.