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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3713)	4/1/2000 12:43:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Gottfried, I think it would be difficult to make stock investments on the basis on any charting system. That would be dumb Idea 1 through 4. Other equally dumb ideas are buying stocks based on any other solitary indicator, such as PE, PS, BTB, Insider sales, insider buys, or because a stock is cheap on a historical basis.I know a few investors that write covered calls based on the premium obtainable. This is another dumb idea. Your charts are very useful in that they report where we have been before, and where we might go, if market forces co-operate. Your charts are not predictive, because there are hundreds of factors that will influence the final outcome. Time to watch the final four and see if Michigan State is as good as statistics indicate. Regards, Jerome

To: Gottfried who wrote (3713)	4/1/2000 12:55:00 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

<<If they think "this time it's different" they can act on that, too.>> Gottfried, I think you missed crystal's point..a viewpoint that myself and others agree with. In a nutshell: different than what? I'm not about to repeat CC's entire posts but clearly it was shown the two year cyclicity is a fluke and the 3-5 year cycle is supported by the data. So, 'will this time be different'? Absolutely not. 'Will the past repeat'? Absolutely. Consistent with these perceptions, this cycle, which began in late 1998, will probably begin to wane late next year or in 2003. In any event, the whole issue is kind of inane since predicting stock movement is an art NOT a science. Certainly charts would have worked to your detriment with Klic during the first 8 months of last year. The semi charts showing a two year cyclicity would have also predicted the cycle to have ended 6 months ago...