I read this link tot he new thread and the TSCM article with a huge smile on my face for two good reasons. IF they are indeed an April Fool Folly, it is pretty good joke.
If not, it just makes ou readers that much more educated about the types of manipulation that go on in the market. Not one of our readers was caught with their shorts down and fanny hanging out in the breeze. This market decline was predicted for more than a few months and almost every day our readers were told to watch very closely and to protect profits extremely aggressively during the March 15 - April 15 time frame. We had the Yellow Caution Flag out since early March and doing nothing more than guerilla warfare in the market of stocks (not stock market). While our rationale might not have been exactly on target, the collapse in the Nasdaq came perfectly within the time frame we said it would.
While everyone was selling into the collapse and reacting to Dear Abby, we were coming up with ways to use our cash reserves once the market turned yesterday. We are re-entering our favorite stocks (all DD was done and they are ALL fundamentally and technically sound companies and not spammer stocks) at fantastic discounts for the next ride up which will occur prior to the summer. We might go as far as saying over the next 8 weeks. We have accumulated and will accumulate at least 10% more shares, and up to twice as many shares in certain companies with the proceeds from the prior sales of the same stocks.
This is not an advertisement for our newsletter but rather an extremely aggressive confirmation of what was being said here and other places about the market being manipulated by the Wall Street Gang. Make no mistake about it, whether it is a scam, spam, or legitimate stock, they are all manipulated via mob psychology. all you need to know is who and when the scream of "fire" is shouted in the movie theater or when the cry of "there is gold in them thar hills" is screamed from the mountain top.
We do not have a system that will make you rich, all we have are certain disciplines and strategies to identify quality companies and to protect profits via constant reminders of where we are at and where we came from. For us, slow but sure wins the race, with an emphasis on sure. The road to riches is not investing in rockets to the moon that crash and burn just as fast, but rather minimizing the number of losing positions we get involved in. We patiently wait for the profits to present themselves.
Think about this for a second. the market tanks on a few comments and some of the semiconductor stocks go into a tailspin. None of them have seen a fundamental shift in their business nor has anything taken place to affect their growth over the next few quarters. As a matter of fact, many of them are about to present record financial quarters over the next few weeks.
So, we can make just one minor assumption. IF you expect greatness in the next few weeks what would be your logical course of action. First, you want to take profits in the stocks you hold by forcing an extended rally to push up the stock value. you then want to take profits and/or force the price down through various means. You then want to get the small investors out of the market by creating a situation where they are selling into the decline and cause the stocks to go lower. From there you gobble up the stocks just in time for the very positive earnings release.
Don't believe us? Go to your favorite semiconductor stocks and check out the institutional ownership and what percent of the float they control. Any one large investor can tank a stock if they want to. PUTs, Shorts, writing CALLs and outright sales when the market is weak can wreak havoc on these stocks. Besides, it was inevitable that these guys would want to book profits for this first quarter.
The market is a game where a company trades at $112 just two weeks ago and now is at $66 with no change in orders, revenues, and anything else that should affect the price of the stock. Instead, it is tanked on the words of a GURU which sent shivers through the market. we saw it coming, we pro-actively exited (not reactively) and then are now buying back in for at least a 50% profit over the next few quarters. And this doesn't even factor in the technological upgrades that will take place in the next year or the degree of expansion still yet to come.
And finally, look at the number of analyst upgrades and price targets that were raised recently. Do they all look stupid because the market dropped? Hell no, they set up their companies to be able to sell enough stock by generating buy side strength for the short term and then let the stocks collapse with their last rush of sales as the GURUs scream "The sky is falling."
And true to form, after the report cards are completed and they have closed the quarter, a few of them jumped the gun late Friday, to load up on the very same stocks. Look at the bounce in the sector late in the session. This was just as predictable. But we were there buying prior to the late session rally and are better set up for the next positive cycle and reversal. We will be the first to sell since we are in at a lower price than the "manipulators of Wall Street." We think we know their profit threshold and are able to beat them to the exits by a few days. We also think we know how to take advantage of their "key profit cycles" during the year and under certain economic conditions.
This current down market was nothing more than "when bad things (bad gossip) happen to good companies." And like a very wise reader tells us,
"We buy from the scared and sell to the greedy." We just hope we are taking the institutions to the cleaners and not the small investors. We cannot prevent lemmings being driven over a cliff but we must certainly can sell parachutes to a few of them<GGG>.
Anyway, just one person's thoughts in agreement with the observations here. the market is manipulated but if you really understand the mob psychology and able to understand the "tells" that are use, you can prosper. Furthermore, if you stick to no margin and choose the best of breed and fundamentally sound companies, all you are really doing is trying to time these volatility cycles and take advantage of them.
Many stocks are overvalued (most of the Internet sector), some are run up prematurely, and some are just a little ahead of themselves but will grow into those prices. Sticking to quality will always yield good results. And quality does not necessarily mean the big name companies that everyone recognizes.
A free "gift to readers" - CYMI - please do not buy this stock (really, no joke). Do your normal due diligence and understand the company. Then ask yourself whether you believe their market share and technology will be solid for the next 3-5 years. If you do not come to this conclusion, allow me the opportunity to send you some published articles or take the opportunity to visit the CYMI thread and ask questions. Wade through any perceived hype and do not be misled. As the hard questions, accept now hype response and become an informed investor. If you are not convinced with facts, figures, and good sound data an information, walk away. At current levels this is an attractive company, maybe not the most attractive, but it will present profits.
NOTE: as it is vey clear to me, this is a very well read thread with many readers. Therefore this thread could manipulate a stock if they wanted to. The volumes traded in CYMI are light by comparison to other stocks, so it is equally true that a thinly traded stock can easily be run up or down. That is why we are not telling or asking anyone to buy this stock (NO, this is not reverse psychology either). We are alerting you to an experiment. Do your DD and ask questions and watch the stock. When it performs, you will have a better understanding as to why it pays to forget about rockets to the moon, overvalued internet stocks, stock picks by promoters or scammers, and stick to what you all know how to do. This is but one stock in 120 that we use as an investment vehicle, no more. It is also probably one of the "Best of Breed"
Just remember, you want sound investments and want to buy from the weaker hands and sell before the manipulation starts. And if you mis-time your entries, be patient and let profits present themselves later. Never be scared out of a sound stock and never be afraid to bargain hunt with sound stocks. We like to think of it as feasting on the creme filling of the OREO cookie and leaving the chocolate wafers for the rest of the people to fight over. We buy to soon and sell too soon but we do it on good sound stocks and walk away with a smile and no regrets.
Andrew Vance
BTW - if you want more information you will have to search us out since we are not believers in promoting, spamming or scamming anything about us. We are a legitimate enterprise that is completely independent of all external influences and do a very good word of mouth business. We do little to no marketing because we devote our energies to sound research and discussions. We got here via a link elsewhere and were interested in this topic and felt the need to put our two cents worth in, nothing more. |
