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To: Steve Yuan who wrote (98284)	4/1/2000 5:00:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Steve: See the data below -- What you say might have been true a couple of months ago, but the curve is now almost completely inverted. Very short term rates are not yet inverted -- but with the expectation of a half point move by the fed, we will have a complete inversion. We should see that next month. I am not calling for recession - only warning that the alarm signals are there and the risk keeps on rising. Remember, very strong economic growth INCREASES the risk of recession because it requires stiff measures to slow it down. The economy looks more and more like it is in a runaway surge, and the gradualist approach of the fed is not working. 30-Year Bond ^TYX Mar 31 58.46 -0.27 -0.46% Chart , News 10-Year Note ^TNX Mar 31 60.23 -0.42 -0.69% Chart 5-Year Note ^FVX Mar 31 63.32 -0.23 -0.36%