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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (1612)	4/2/2000 6:29:00 AM
From: Gus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

It looks like we finally have online proof that the proverbial greater fools are consolidating and even adding to their positions in VRTS.<g> Fortunately we only have the naive poster or two on this board because normally these kind of posts below are anecdotal indicators that a stock is topping. Remind me one of these days to show you several posts of several investors in a company with revenues below $1 billion but a cap of $100 billion boldy declaring that the stock was going to double each year for the next five years with "the best yet to come." There was something surreal about how blissfully unaware those strident investors were about the kind of numbers they were talking about, i.e., a company growing its capitalization from $100 billion to $3.2 TRILLION in 5 years with "the best yet to come"!!!! From Yahoo: No, we don't know how you feel, or WHY you feel that way. Apparently, without SEG's ownership of VRTS's skyrocketing shares, SEG's shareprice wouldn't even be close to what it is now. Regardless of what you THINK SEG is worth, until the recent run-up in SEG (which by the way, most commentators I heard could find 'no explanation for' at the time), $77.50 a share would have been about DOUBLE -sometimes TRIPLE- what the market has ACTUALLY valued SEG at during the majority of the PAST SEVERAL YEARS, and as a bonus, no tax hit either! That certainly doesn't sound like stealing to me. In fact, it sounds pretty damn good! Not to mention that most of that is in the form of VRTS shares that have the potential to keep growing far faster than SEG is likely to, making the long-term value even greater. SEG has been trying to figure out a way to unlock the value of the VRTS stock without incurring a huge tax hit for some time now. I would assume this is the best deal they could make, or they would already have done something different. In the past month the VRTS board here was bombarded by supposed SEG shareholders/cheerleaders screaming that if we had any brains we'd buy SEG based on the fact that they owned about 33% of VRTS and THAT was what made SEG so undervalued and such a good idea to buy. If the disc drive business has such a bright future, why promote SEG on that basis? The only other way SEG could get the VRTS value (and I got the impression that this was a priority for quite a few shareholders) would be as SEG slowly sells off it's VRTS holdings, including taking the tax hit, AND in the end the VRTS holding is gone. Where is your value and what happens to SEG shareprice THEN? If your don't like VRTS's prospects, sell your converted shares and put your money into some other hardware stock that will stay in the basement for months or years at a time or whatever. SO -PLEASE GET A CLUE! THIS IS A WIN/WIN SOLUTION! messages.yahoo.com To clarify wearechosen's statement "without SEG's ownership of VRTS's skyrocketing shares, SEG's shareprice wouldn't even be close to what it is now", let's plug in the current values. SEG's market cap is $13.275B as of Friday's close. SEG owns something like 128M VRTS shares. At VRTS closing price of $131 that ammounts to $16.768B. Disregarding SEG's other holdings (SNDK, ZOOX, etc.), let's calculate what SEG is worth without the VRTS stock: -$3.5B. Yes, that's a minus sign there. The SEG shareholders must be completely delusional to imagine that a company that's worth a NEGATIVE $3.5B is worth paying a 50% premium on. If SEG was worth that kind of money, its valuation and stock price would reflect it. messages.yahoo.com