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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scotty who wrote (51018)	4/1/2000 8:07:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

scotty: My two cents worth on the dollar. Japanese investments are key to the dollar. Lots of money is due to come out of the postal savings system (1 trillion dollars over two years) -- where was that invested? U.S. treasuries? The flow of money into Japanese stocks could provide competition for the U.S. financial markets. The world has been a one trick pony for years -- U.S. financial assets -- and that is the key to the dollar IMO. With soaring trade and current account deficits, the dollar is ripe for a fall IMO. We are just past Japanese year end and the dollar dropped on Friday -- I think the time has come for the next move down for the dollar.

To: scotty who wrote (51018)	4/1/2000 11:45:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Scotty, Growth last quarter was 7.3% and the Fed may be forced to raise rates more aggressively in the future, in 50 basis point increments over the next 6 months. That bodes well for a strong dollar over the short to intermediate term. I think Gold is in serious trouble over the next couple of months, 38 week Elliot Wave up cycle or not. GST's point about Japan siphoning off some funds from the US is possible but not probable. A little has already been siphoned off. But Japan is in a recession and the Nikeii is approaching some pretty stiff technical resistance on the chart. I would need to see this rally in Japan continue into the next quarter and the Nikeii break the 23,000 level in order to get confirmation of a trend change. My hunch is that what we are seeing in Japan is a Bear Market Rally. The US account and trade deficit is enormous. The US economy is one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and Europe and its currency is the reserve currency of the World. Who knows when the Piper will finally get paid? My guess is sometime in 2001 as Greenspan overshoots raising rates and causes a recession. I continue to think that NEM is a great short here because the decline in the POG has not been factored into its share price.