To: Marvin Mansky who wrote (29838 ) 4/2/2000 8:41:00 AM From: Tecinvestor Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
Good morning, Marvin. The implications and far reaching effects of the forthcoming conclusions of law (assuming it will be issued) will be dependent upon precisely what Judge Jackson rules. I think it's too early to tell. However, I believe there will be a number of beneficiaries of the decision, including AOL (Netscape), ORCL and SUNW. I have little doubt that Judge Jackson is going to seriously hammer MSFT. On top of everything else, the failed efforts to mediate and settle this matter only exacerbates the situation and further portrays MSFT as arrogant and uncooperative. MSFT's recalcitrance these past several months will only further inflame the court. I don't think we'll see a break up, but I do think we'll see an order requiring MSFT to publicize its source codes. Moreover, I think there will be other punitive sanctions. Short term, I think SUNW will benefit measurably from an adverse determination. Simply stated, it's a matter of perception . MSFT will be perceived the loser and SUNW, AOL and ORCL the winners. Short term, I see a quick ten point move in SUNW once the conclusions of law are issued, and steady movement up from there. Long term effects will depend upon the substance of the ruling. For someone like McNealy, who has been harping on MSFT for years, there is no telling what collateral advantages he will receive as a result of a MSFT hit, but I believe they will be very significant. That will only help SUNW. I think the amount of collateral litigation MSFT will be faced with will be staggering. I am sure there are a whole cadre of companies just waiting for the axe to fall and be given the fuel with which to commence their own proceedings against MSFT. Once again, bottom line, come Monday morning, if I were inclined to hold MSFT, I'd be buying SUNW as a hedge. JMHO. Tecinvestor