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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J Langholtz who wrote (11463)	4/2/2000 12:50:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29986

<Why the change of heart? Recently you've been ballistic about bungled G implementation. What's changed ? Why a 150 bagger when they aren't able to execute? > No change of heart. I've said for quite a while that I'd buy at about $15, but had hoped [since June last year] that a decent stock market crunch would happen simultaneously. Buying at market peaks is not my favourite activity as a crunch would take everything down with it. But with $15 staring at me, I couldn't pass up the opportunity on the wishful idea that a tumbling overall market might pass me an even better bargain. I've also been saying for a year or two that although Globalstar has bungled the marketing, all that means is that instead of being a 30 bagger [by 2005] it will be a rotten 15 bagger [give or take a bag or three]. Which is still not bad you know! Globalstar is still planning on doing silly stuff such as maintaining fixed pricing, busy signals, frustrated subscribers, handset shortages, technology development delays, letting competitors get started and stuff like that. Even with those mistakes and blunders, Globalstar will do very, very well, such is the advantage of their technology and the technological developmental pathways available. Those mistakes are also things which can be fixed anytime. The value of Globalstar would be about 5 times what it is if they were to do the Cat's Eye's marketing because profit comes from the last little bit of subscriber loading and capacity increments. Fast and early subscriber growth would bring in peak pricing at full load years earlier than the current plan. So, I'm happy with the rotten marketing plan and would be ecstatic beyond belief [I suppose that's a slight exaggeration] if they were to price the minutes correctly. But even in the absence of that, they will make $$billions a year in profit. Imagine fully-loaded with no busy signals 4 years from now. That would mean 10bn minutes at about 30c profit average per minute [having increased from 10c a minute peak and free off-peak or fully variable pricing]. That's $3bn per year profit for GLP. At [less than] 300m shares, that would be $10 per share profit. With a P:E of 40:1 to allow for fast growth or whatever figure you like, that would mean a share price of $400. BUT if they go crazy and really get things moving, that would come in sooner [at least a year and maybe 2]. Constellation2 could be rushed into service and with that filling REALLY quickly, profits would be extreme. The capacity of the second constellation and the techology improvements would mean lower minute production cost with fast data for WWeb access. The share price would very quickly be around $1000. Hang on, that's not a 150 bagger. But it's all quite good. Then Constellations 3, 4, and 5 could be plugged in at lower altitudes for better performance. The gateways would have antennae all over the place following herds of satellites. Handsets would be small with little aerials instead of the 1812 Overture gun barrel models. All vehicles would have them. I don't want to miss out. Imagine if Globalstar really gets things moving and does stuff right! But even badly done is worth $15 today! Maurice