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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (7761)	4/2/2000 7:08:00 AM
From: Dinesh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

CTC You make some very persuasive arguments, and certainly seem to have a better grip on CFFO, FV and PV. Very useful tools in putting a value on a company's current operations. But not very useful in predicting the future value. You can try these measures on Ampex, but not Amazon. Or, Yahoo!, Cisco or Citrix. These stocks are volatile but that's not the same thing as risky. I am not an accountant so I'll never be able to ascertain your CFFO and PV/FV computations. I assume they are right. I do believe that there are different scaling factors for relative market positions. So, two companies making exactly the same widgets and growing at same rate will have different multipliers depending on who's the leader. Your formulae need some tweaking to capture this market fact. Re. the Nobel Laureates (sp) and other market experts whom you so eloquently quote. Personally, I think if somebody found the way to a hidden gold mine, very unlikely he or she is going to show the path to the rest of us. So, those who talk either don't know, or are unsure. Especially in the world of money where access to resources is not much of an issue as, one might argue, it is in the world of gold mining. (this is not to say that these are not intelligent people.) Regards Dinesh

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (7761)	4/2/2000 10:36:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

"If we knew that growth would occur at a rate certain, then any stock should be priced like a risk-free security." CTC- Yes I know that. But you missed a key point in my post to you. I said, "privately." Just you and I knew it. If we all knew it, then your reply would be dead accurate. ________________ Next question(s). What if you applied the EXACT same valuation type exercises to either MSFT in mid year 1996, would you have come to the same conclusions you are coming to today regarding CTXS? Or how about CSCO mid 1998? Thanks! -MikeM(From Florida)