Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Milan Shah who wrote (40478)	4/2/2000 10:58:00 PM
From: Marvin Mansky	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74651

Milan: In my own experience I would not sell out when bad news strikes, however this situation is vastly different. I believe the stock price will drop in three phases. Phase 1: Monday prior to Jackson's conclusions of law; Phase 2: After release of conclusions of law Phase 3: Announcement of damage lawsuits against Microsoft. Also any company anticipating buying Microsoft products may want to postpone purchases due to uncertainty concerning litigation. Ultimate price to drop to $55 per share IMO. So I would sell out tomorrow if I was long MSFT, then if you love MSFT, buy back in at $55 per share. This is JMHO.

To: Milan Shah who wrote (40478)	4/2/2000 11:34:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Respond to of 74651

Milan, empires retreat slowly. I don't expect a big drop in MSFT immediately, just a slow but continuing decline. My reasons are: 1. I don't expect the funds to panic and sell. 2. BUT they will stop buying more, so any selling by anyone will be at lower prices. 3. Now that we are likely headed to a multitude of court cases, a significant part of MSFT resources will be diverted to legal matters. Development and marketing will suffer. 4. MSFT legal team will put restrictions on any aggressive marketing activities during this process. 5. Earnings will NOT suffer anytime soon, MSFT has a lot squirreled away. 6. But long term growth will be hampered, thus the PE will be driven down to the range of IBM. I sold my MSFT long position around 91 when the legal stuff first got hot. Not short yet, but considering it. Danger of shorting is that an unexpected settlement would put MSFT over $120 in a heartbeat. Hmmmm, $50 or $120 and not much in between, maybe a put/call spread is called for. I usually don't trade options, but maybe that is what we need here.