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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (711)	4/3/2000 11:22:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 33421

John, geocities.com This chart is very clear in the divergence between the MACD, RSI, etc and the ¾en chart. Connie Brown has a lot to say about these divergences in her book. I find the Yen a very complicated and fascinating currency......not easy to navigate or trade. With Japan's new problems and the uncertainty surrounding the next few weeks for that country, I would expect your thought of a sideways market to down would be right on...? These were powerful moves in the last few days. There must be some unhappy people long the Yen....! There is a new fork formed with this drop that places a median line at 9650ñ and another at larger fork is looking at 9500ñ. With the daily chart reversal pattern and these 2 forks, I'd expect the ¾en to drop off the median line and head for 9500. An earlier up front fork targeted 9900ñ, did very well stopping this last long move and I expect the new fork to attrack the market downward and break your 50% move and see the 200dma. Lets see if I'm Right...? Here's more: FOREX-Yen buckles, market braces for more BoJ moves By Svea Herbst-Bayliss NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - The yen was beaten back on Monday when Japan sold its own currency in the open market, spelling out its fears that last week's runaway rally could jeopardize the nation's still fragile economic recovery. Spending an estimated $10 billion on the first trading day of the new fiscal year, Japan's central bank chipped away at Friday's 4 percent gains when the yen hit a record high against the euro and three-month high against the euro. News that Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi was in a coma on Monday after suffering a stroke over the weekend helped keep the yen under pressure. ``We have had enough news this morning to inject a note of caution into trading and to leave people wondering what may happen next,' said Anne Parker Mills, currency economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. The Bank of Japan swept into the market when the dollar traded at 103.30 yen and bought the currency on several occasions, sending it as high as 105.60 yen, up more than 3-1/2 yen from Friday's three-month low. In its wake, the euro also rallied, climbing as far as 100.67 yen compared with record lows around 97.50 yen reached on Friday. As New York trading got underway, the dollar seesawed near 105 yen while the euro traded around 100.50 yen, prompting traders to call the overnight action a success. ``Usually by the time New York gets in, the effects of any intervention have worn off, but today, given the Obuchi news and the sense that Japan is really serious about keeping the yen from soaring ever higher, the dollar has held up well,' a dealer at a Japanese bank in New York said. Market players had been expecting the intervention, and many are bracing for more moves even as they predicted Japan's key partners, the United States and the 11 nations making up the euro zone, would not participate in any future action. Yen buying reached a fevered pitch last week as dealers bet Japan's business sentiment index would show great improvement. On Monday the tankan sentiment index for major manufacturers came in at minus nine, up from the minus 17 reading in December. It was so close to expectations that it did not spark significant fresh yen buying overnight. Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei average however rose nearly 2 percent, suggesting little concern about Obuchi's condition and confidence in the economy. The tankan survey ``does confirm the corporate sector has passed the bottom,' Brown Brothers' Mills said, adding that fresh fears about intervention may surface if dollar/yen slips under 104.50. ``That is a level where people could begin to wonder about it again,' she said. Meanwhile the euro drifted in a tight range largely ignoring a slew of strong purchasing managers' reports from Germany, France, Italy to traded near 95.60 cents and nearly flat compared with Friday's close. Dealers said U.S. stock trading could be instrumental, especially if the market comes under new pressure, hurt in part by news that antitrust settlement talks between Microsoft Corp. and the U.S. Justice Department have broken down. The market was paying some attention to an upcoming report on U.S. manufacturing, but dealers said the reaction should be muted unless the National Association of Purchasing Management index was far off Wall Street's 56.4 forecast. ``We all know the Fed is going to raise rates and I doubt the data will really do a lot unless it is really different,' a dealer said.