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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (22124)	4/3/2000 11:05:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

If it's a $3 billion market growing at 60% annually either the tornado has come and gone or has not yet arrived. Since when is 60% growth a confirmed tornado? Yeah, I knew when I wrote it I'd be vulnerable on that one. <g> I keep hoping for one of the camera smarties to pipe up. I suppose I could spend some time surfing the net to misuse some obscure facts to my advantage. <g> Or, I could just yield on this one. Ok, so it's subtornado at present. But I think it would be fair to say that it is beyond just having crossed a chasm, which I think may have been your original point. And based on Ausdauer's posts, compact flash looks to be knocking down, or trying to knock down several bowling pins...ie, MP3, digital camcorders, wireless handsets, digital cameras, set top boxes. So could it be more accurate to state that Compact Flash/SanDisk is in the Bowling Alley? Squire Hawk, Ausdauer, Cha2, what do the rest of you guys/gals say? Hey, Merlin's got me out here dangling on a limb, tenuous at best; how bout a little help. <heeellllllpppp> Stan

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (22124)	4/3/2000 3:50:00 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Digital camera/compact flash memory growth.... Since when is 60% growth a confirmed tornado? MB According to Squire Hawk's timely post #21153, the growth in digital cameras THIS YEAR is > 100%, but annualized is about 50% thru 2003. By comparison, your excellent 1 year review of Qualcomm events notes that most authorities are now anticipating CDMA growth of about 30% per annum. Since this figure is well under 100%, does this mean the tornado is over???? The start of a tornado is roughly defined as annual growth of 80-100% , I think confirmed over a period of several quarters. But just for the sake of discussion, and as you point out in your review of Qcom, the burgeoning growth/size of the market results in slowing growth. So the 30% annual growth in CDMA and the 50% annual growth in Dig. Cams/Compact Flash could be construed to mean that the tornado continues. Since neither of these products has reached Main Street, they must still be in a tornado, by definition (certainly we would agree on CDMA). Is this a reasonable understanding, or would your interpretation be different? If you agree that the Dig. Cam/compact flash market is now in a tornado in Y2K, then should we be investing in SanDisk......or is it a King in the royalty play of portable storage; or is it a gorilla candidate among Compact Flash makers? Stan