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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (101669)	4/3/2000 2:04:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1578704

Goutama, looking at the estimates on your earnings contest (http://www.epscontest.com) -- an excellent site BTW -- I think most AMDites are ways too optimistic on the quantity of Athlons for Q1. The average estimate for this thread is 1.7M Athlons at $223. I have no doubt that AMD could make 2M athlons this quarter, but fell that demand for the Athlon cannot grow faster than 50% per quarter (implying sales of 1.2-1.4M) without considerably more than the $20 price erosion. I again expect production to exceed sales. It takes a lot of chips to "fill up the channel." But I'm not sure how AMD accounts for sales to the major OEM's. If AMD ships 100,000 chips to Compaq, and Compaq has built 70,000 PC's (so far) with these chips, has shipped 60,000 to warehouses and retail stores, and 40,000 have sold to end users, how many of the 100,000 chips are counted in sales? Petz