To: SargeK who wrote (63700 ) 4/3/2000 5:31:00 PM From: SargeK Respond to of 95453
Street Advisor BULLISH on Energy and Energy Service Apr 3 2000 Another increase in the offshore rig count, combined with the less-than-expected crude oil production increase and the price band of $20-$25 voted at last week?s OPEC meeting, confirms a bullish environment for energy and energy service stocks. We still believe that sustained crude oil prices in this price range will generate higher earnings for energy companies, which will drive a multi-year drilling cycle and be great for energy service stocks. Our recommendations? See the table below. Ticker Price Price/Potential/Target Gain% OIL PRODUCERS: Amerada Hess AHC $64.63 $80.00 24% Chevron CHV $92.44 $110.00 19% Occidental Petroleum OXY $20.75 $35.00 69% Texaco TX $53.75 $75.00 40% ENERGY SERVICE: BakerHughes BHI $30.25 $35.00 16% CooperCameron CAM $66.88 $75.00 12% Diamond Offshore DO $39.94 $55.00 38% Friede Goldman Halter FGH $6.88 $20.00 191% Halliburton HAL $41.13 $55.00 34% Marine Drilling MRL $27.44 $35.00 28% Nabors Industries NBR $38.19 $45.00 18% R&B Falcon FLC $19.69 $70.00 256% Rowan Companies RDC $29.44 $35.00 19% Schlumberger SLB $76.50 $85.00 11% Valero Energy VLO $30.69 $50.00 63% Varco Int'l VRC $12.63 $30.00 138% Recent statements from Kuwait, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela indicate that prices outside the $20-$25 range will trigger OPEC to reduce or increase production by 500,000 barrels per day (b/d). Mexico and Norway?which are not members of OPEC but participants in the curtailment of crude oil production--have announced less-than-expected production increases of 150,000 b/d and 100,000 b/d respectively. The estimated increase in production of about 1.7m b/d, which includes about 1.2m b/d in excess of targeted levels, results in an approximate 500,000 net increase in crude oil production. This is less than the estimated 2.5m barrels per day (b/d) imbalance between production and consumption. The weekly mobile offshore rig count from Offshore Data Services for last week shows another increase in the number of drilling rigs under contract in the Europe/Mediterranean area and the Rest of the World. With rig utilization rates now increasing in areas outside the Gulf of Mexico, we believe a pickup in worldwide drilling activity has begun. And OPEC?s production boost and price band are likely to accelerate this already visible increase. Offshore Data Services Rig Count Rigs Under Contract Utilization Rate Week Month Year Month 3/31/00 Ago Ago Ago 3/31/00 Ago US/Gulf of Mexico 155 155 146 109 78.3% 75.3% Europe/Med 86 84 79 95 81.9% 74.5% Rest of World 260 260 257 254 77.6% 76.8% Worldwide 501 499 482 458 78.5% 75.9% Source: Offshore Data Services With rig utilization rates now at 81.9 percent in the Europe/Med and approaching 80 percent in the Gulf of Mexico and Worldwide, daily rental rates for offshore rigs are likely to begin rising, as they have historically. Upward estimate revisions for contract offshore drillers are likely to follow, in our opinion. Our price targets for Marine Drilling, Nabors Industries, Rowan Companies, and Schlumberger are under review for possible increases. Stay tuned. Baker Hughes? [BHI] rig count for last week shows drilling activity in Canada has fallen from a month ago. We believe this relates to a typical seasonal pattern, with melting snow and mud curtailing business. However, we expect a higher rig count in coming weeks, following that in the US last week. Baker Hughes Rig Count Week Month Year 3/31/00 Ago Ago Ago Canada 244 367 544 94 United States 775 766 760 503 Source: Baker Hughes Rick is an analyst with StreetAdvisor.com. As a full-time employee of StreetAdvisor.com, Rick is prohibited from actively trading individual stocks, options, and bonds. As per company policy, Rick has not opened a new position in a stock since February 1, 2000.streetadvisor.com