To: BigTex who wrote (13016 ) 4/3/2000 5:11:00 PM From: ajs Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19297
We Are Not Out of the Woods Yet By James J. Cramer thestreet.com 4/3/00 4:39 PM ET Was this the capitulation low of the Nasdaq? That's what many of you emailed me in the last few hours. I don't see it that way. Supply is killing the NDX, not earnings (although Legato (LGTO: - news - boards) and Parametric (PMTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) gave you plenty of pause about that today). Let me go over this dilemma very specifically. The stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange don't have new supply coming out. In fact, they are probably going to be net buyers of their stocks at this juncture. In fact, I would imagine that ex-the biggest New York Stock Exchange offerings, there has been a huge shrinkage in supply. The buybacks in the big-caps have been ferocious, as one company management after another is just plain sick of where its stock is. On the Nasdaq, however, supply has become a moving target. It seems to grow daily. The underwritings, far from being cancelled, are growing. The Rule 144 insider filings are skyrocketing. The lockup expirations get greeted with avalanches of insider selling even at these levels. At my core I am neither a chartist nor a fundamentalist. I am a psychologist of demand and supply. The Dow has no supply, the NDX has unlimited supply. Hence the numbers you see on your screen. The direction of each changes only if the supply-and-demand equation changes. (Many newbies ask me where I get these numbers. Supply numbers I get from the Fed. Demand numbers? I get those from my eyes and ears. I am a professional trader, trained to see this stuff. It is my edge. I try to write about my edge, but understand, it is what I do for a living, which is why it is expertise, not guesswork.) You want to hear the following comments from your brokers right here: "We are pulling our offerings. The sellers don't want to sell here." Unfortunately, many of the companies in the queue wouldn't exist without that possible cash infusion from the public. So they don't cancel. That's why it stays too heavy. That's why we are not out of the woods. --------------------------------------------- But the supply on OTCBB stocks are shrinking, as more and more are being delisted every month. So according to Cramer's argument, OTCBB stocks should not go down like NASDAQ's. ajs