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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: $Mogul who wrote (92213)	4/3/2000 6:38:00 PM
From: KevinMark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108040

BS...mark it down. Futures are already rockin, up 50 points already! I assure you...the MM's will not allow those in jail right now an easy out tomorrow. If you were short...you should of d... well covered before the close. As far as margin's concerned....the only reason the market tanked IMO...was due to stops being taken out! Not because of margin selling. Tomorrow we bounce and bounce hard. Buy on dips...sell on the bounce! That's the only way to make $$$$ in this market right now. But, you better believe money flow will come into the market tomorrow. Tomorrow...we melt up!!!!! KM

To: $Mogul who wrote (92213)	4/3/2000 7:23:00 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108040

<the avg. investor did not have a choice...the brokers sold for them> Very true. One stat that remains is Margin debt was 179B at the end of January and 265B at the end of February. No numbers for March. (Per Bob Brinker's news show) Been alot of money on the side waiting for tech to decline. I expect some comeback due to Oracle analyst meeting tomorrow and Yahoo earnings on Wednesday. What I saw in the first March correction was people borrowing more on margin to get their capital back. The last five trading day, they probably got wiped out. Very similar to last April correction with Yahoo, Dell, and others. I've been able to convince all of my friends to hold tight in their tech mutual funds despite being down thousands in the last week. One stat: Nasdaq up only 3.7% YTD Dow down 1.8% YTD S&P500 up 3.0% This is the closest the three have been together since the beginning of the year. The loser in all this is the investor who went chasing the hot sector only to watch it dump. The hot sector now is the Dow stocks. Two weeks from now, I'm betting it will be the semiconductors when they announce earnings. I don't like losing 4.8% of my portfolio today, but I have been here before and survived it. In 1987, we all cut our losses and sold at a 60% loss and watched the market rally back in 30% the next year. It seemed impossible that stocks that lost 60% could ever regain their previous high, but most profitable companies did it and better before the decade ended. If I were to bet on a short term bounce tomorrow, look to ORCL, CSCO, and EMC with their new alliance and the ORCL meeting. Jack

To: $Mogul who wrote (92213)	4/3/2000 9:11:00 PM
From: gizmo&jack	Respond to of 108040

Mogul, you are dead on. It's a question of when. My opinion of the situation is that the end is near. Not meaning to gloat, but I saw this coming. Which is why I sold WEBM at 233 and SLAB at 94 a couple of days ago. Went 75% cash, up from 25%. (Furious with myself for not selling ASIA, the other 25% Fell in love a little bit with that one, oldest error in the book). And now I think the rebound is near. The selloff has been severe and based on very little. As some of you may know from my earlier posts, I truly believe that this is a conspiracy of the highest order. Institutions began doing this last year. The same guys who come on in January and say "buy" say "sell now," after they have sold of course. The fund managers know that the average retail investor listens to them. So now they scare the hell out of them, then come the margin calls, the stocks sell off beyond belief, and the institutions come back saying now there are some attractive buying opportunities. And they will be in first and double their money again. A great little game. And there is nothing a savvy retail investor can do to stop it because too many retail investors are foolish. Only thing you can do is recognize it and play along. Now, are there some overvalued stocks still out there like you said Mogul? Of course there are. But the babies are being thrown out with the bathwater now. And remember, babies are mostly made up of cartilege and they bounce. The internet phenomenon is real. The sequential revenue growth for many companies is phenomenal and real. Just check the numbers. Many of these companies are absurdly undervalued now. There was a reason that many stocks were as high as they were in the first place. And the good ones will return and surpass their old heights. But I think the next ride up will reveal much more discrimination. The bathwater will evaporate and disappear. We need to identify the babies on this thread before earnings because earnings will be the discriminator and the catalyst for many stocks. Strong earnings will lead beaten down stocks to doubles and triples from here easily. That's all for now. G&J