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To: theniteowl who wrote (7708)	4/3/2000 10:12:00 PM
From: Cube	Respond to of 10027

Thread, Just a quick update on my view of the uptrend. This is technical analysis based on my proprietary indicator, so I know Morgan is rolling his eyes right about now, (just teasing Morgan). I last called the downtrend dead when the stock shattered key resistance at 42 on 2/29/00. This uptrend is still intact and indeed healthy if we close no lower than 39 tomorrow. That closing price floor of 39 is dynamic and will go up slightly every day after tomorrow. If that is breached, then our uptrend will have died. Next few days are very important. Cube

To: theniteowl who wrote (7708)	4/3/2000 11:28:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10027

theniteowl - "cup and handle" and similar chart patterns are a load of rubbish in the case of NITE, IMO. You have a stock that has a significantly unstable OS/float relationship. That alone throws most chart patterns out the window. TA in general must be approached with a great deal of caution - it is very easy for news, dramatic developments in the general market etc. to overwhelm any TA. TA is best used for more mature stocks, during periods of relatively stable environment. Having said that, TA and even charting can still be useful for a stock like NITE. One thing which is not widely understood, is that support/resistance levels do not have constant strength over time. F.ex. at one point, resistance at 55 may have been very strong - but due to the trading action and the "work" the stock has done, when the stock approaches the resistance level, say, a week later, or a day later, the resistance is now much weaker. Further, resistance/support levels need not be tested in order to for the strenght of that level to change. F.ex., I pegged 60, and 62, 64, 65, as the most powerful resistance levels (rather than 55). Well, 60 was tested, and the stock failed to break through that resistance. Level 62 resistance has not been tested. However, today, even though the stock has retreated from 60 all the way to 44+, resistance at both 60 and 62 has significantly weakened! The reason for this is that as the stock is traded, the composition of holders changes, and "pending shares" levels change. F.ex., many shareholders who held shares when the stock was recently trading at 60, didn't sell at that time, but were waiting for mid 60's or high 60's to sell. Now that the stock started to decline, many of them sold, in order to protect gains (mostly a lot of swingtraders). So, as the stock climbs, it will now not encounter the selling at 62, 64 etc., that would have happened before (because those sellers sold on the way down from the failed break of 60 - otherwise those sellers would sell at 64 etc.). As a result, the stock encounters much weaker resistance at 62 etc., than it would have before: the strenght of the resistance at 62 has changed, even though it was never tested! Of course it can also work in reverse - resistance/support strengthens, etc. Thus, resistance/support levels, their strength and elasticity (pockets) - must be re-evaluate continuously in light of the trading action during any period of time. Failing to do that, causes many chart/TA devotees to identify levels, and then become completely disoriented when the stock does not behave the way it is supposed to at those levels. The market is a dynamic system, and must be evaluated dynamically. That is why I get impatient when I see TA/charting posts spinning scenarios which are completely removed from reality. Anyhow, frankly, I don't like to post TA analysis very much, because inevitably I'm forced to simplify, otherwise my posts would be truly endless<ggg>. Good luck! Morgan