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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2751)	4/4/2000 1:08:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Jorj, good luck to you......really. Given that the NASDAQ has retraced to the point where it was at in mid Jan, I personally feel we have a way to go before value minded investors (they're the ones with meaningfull cash on hand will step in). The phenominal gains of the past 1 1/2 years have numbed investors/traders/the public as to how to buy and value stocks. We are comming out of a period where issues were extreamly overbought. The question is will we over correct.....swinging the other way. At this point depending on how the public reacts its quite reasonalbe we could see 2700-3000 in short order. Think of what happens when 5% of portofolios that are 70% invested in stocks are moved to cash. based on last weeks market valuation of around 15.5 trillion, that's the equivelent of a negative flow of 1.1 trillion, of course in the process of liquidating that amount of funds the market averages will be plunging. Anyone have any idea about the relationship (factor) of money flow to market value. Looking at the 1 qtr, the wilshire rose 9.2% with a inflow of .7% new money based on average market valuation. If the inverse were to apply, that would mean a ratio of 13 to 1. Wow........the only way the game can go on is to prevent redemptions