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Technology Stocks : Teligent -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SecularBull who wrote (242)	4/19/2000 10:57:00 PM
From: The ChrisMeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 270

I got back in Monday AM, after about a 5-6 month absence from both TGNT and SI. Sorry for those of you longs who've seen a $100 share price severely trimmed in the last month. Since I sold last Fall at 49+ I missed the double, but am not sure if my trading system would have generated the sell signal to get out up near the top. I probably would have been as complacent as anyone else, thinking at worst a 20-25% drop would still keep me safely in the blackest black. One just doesn't expect 70% drops on psychological or technical reasons (terrible news is another thing). It's amazing how often tops are accompanied by announcements of stock splits. I presume the split and secondary offering will be put on hold for the time being. If it's any consolation, I bought at 35 13/16, and we were down at 30« less than an hour later. I hate when that happens. At Friday's close, this and RealNetworks were the two most deeply oversold stocks in the basket of 75 I follow, so it just had to be bought. Anyway, we're doing better here up at 40, with 4 times normal volume and up a couple on a day when the rest of the tech market was off a couple of percent. A 3/8ths retrace of the 100->30« drop, which is fairly common technical action, would take us back up to 56«. For me, this makes a nice trade. If/when we get back up there I'll re-read the tone of the market to decide whether to stay long or take a nice profit and roll over the $$'s into something else. I have a hard time holding long-long on tech stocks like this, and instead view them as something one has to trade. Needless to say, I've got a stop in so I don't get left holding the bag if we decide to step off the cliff some more. On the TeraBeam thing. . .first, someone on the Yahoo board pointed out that just about all of Gilder's great-sounding bleeding-edge stocks have ended up in the crapper; not sure how true this is, but even if he's a smart guy it doesn't mean he's got a crystal ball on winners/losers. Second, as I understand it, the TB technology may promise a gigabit rate, but not everyone in the loop gets that; I believe it's more like DSL where the individual's rate drops as new subscribers are added to the line unless new equipment is added to keep up. I hope someone more technically knowledgeable than I am will correct me on this, since I'm probably wrong. My impression is that there's some overlap and competition, but that there's enough room for growth right now that many can succeed; a couple of years down the line it may look quite different. * ChrisMeister