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To: horseflyian who wrote (34178)4/5/2000 8:22:00 AM
From: the Chief  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 62348
 
chief, you called the week so far. 2 days of bumpyness, day 3 for direction.

Just a guess. Today will be an "all over the map day" with the Nasdaq closing down from Yesterday. The reason is simple. People that were actually working for a living and didn't follow the market yesterday wil find out that their accounts look a little different today. Those in the higher risk categories will find that their accts were flushed into the market to cover a margin call. Or their overall networth has diminshed significantly.

The people that didn't know what was happening to the market until after it was over, and would have normally panicked will likely panic today. So the opening will take the market lower out of the gates. Look for a 160 point pullback on Nasdaq with a more orderly rebound as we progress for the day. Nasdaq will likely close off 90 points. This will proliferate the feeling of a "slow bleed" on peoples accounts and they will again look to the Dow for direction.

The Dow will likely open lower and then stabilize quicker than the Nasdaq and show a positive close. If the DOW closes "too high" than there will be another migration from the Nasdaq tomorrow as people will really believe that there is no "hope" for Nasdaq stocks in the near future. In doing so, the Mutual funds will then jump in with both feet and start buying all the teckies they can find on Friday creating a big reversal in the Nasdaq.

The analysts who work for the brokerages, who have now made a fortune on their old school stocks that they have been stuck with for the last 9 months will have sold into this DOW/old school ralley and will then appear on TV stations everywhere saying that 'specific" Nasdaq stocks have been oversold. Those stocks, of course are the ones they are presently buying while everyone else is buying their DOW/Old school stocks.

By the first of Next week, Joe Public will be fully invested in the DOW/blue chip stocks and the brokerages/mutual funds will be fully invested in the suppressed good teckies.

Coverage of the "bargains to be had" on the Nasdaq will start to accelerate over the next 6 months and the DOW/Old school stocks will basically flatline, as the "deals" on the NASDAQ start to experience 20-30% rises. This will finally attract the "scaredy-cats"out of the DOW stocks into Nasdaq. Of course they will be buying the brokerage/mutual fund profitable stocks......from the brokerages/mutual funds...who will be silently buying back into the DOW....tos start the "shaft of Joe Public all over again". I've been here too many times before. It doesn't take a guru to predict this cycle.

The only people that are in sync with the market is the brokerages "prefferred big buck" clients. The rest of their clients are classified "waste".

the Chief