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To: John Stewart who wrote (2756)4/4/2000 9:57:00 PM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
John - Do you think $60M/Q translates to $.40/Q given current o/h growth?

I do. I think that a lot of the recent growth in Op Exp was, per the 10K, due to a return of bonuses and other compensation that had been removed in the last downturn. This is not to say that I expect Op Exp to stay the same, but I would guess that its percent growth is slowing - I assume no more than $3M more at $60M/Q. Additionally, on a marginal basis, I expect that the GM for the additional $25M (60-35) will be 51% or more. Thus the additional earnings is about ((0.51 x 25M) - 3M) x 0.64 = $6.2M or 0.31 per share. I'll admit that that is a slower rate of increase in Op Exp than they have shown very recently, but even worst case I expect them to be at somewhere north of 0.33 for $60M/Q.

That does assume 7 more straight Q's of growth, though.

I don't actually foresee 7 straight quarters of growth (i.e. maybe there will be one quarter of downturn), but I am assuming that the last 'cycle' (96-97/98) was an aberration, and that the average cycle is more like 3 or 4 years long.

All JMO

Clark