To: levy who wrote (18090 ) 4/4/2000 8:48:00 PM From: tahoe_bound Respond to of 28311
I remember, and for larger caps it was about a year. Others took a lot longer. It did not feel good, it seriously felt worse than this even with little equity exposure, mostly because it did not recover intra day. Some quality companies' stocks believe it or not have STILL not stayed above their '87 prices. To wit, home builders, though they are profitable many times over and have grown profits by double digits ever since. Single digit p/e ratios. They are all debt free and yet, it does not matter. The street in their infinite wisdom is not impressed. Some other examples of great money makers still down since '87 are many insurance, food, gaming, and a few retailers, all making money hand over foot. No one knows when a group will be out of favor, possibly for many years. It takes more than fundamentals and valuations to move stock prices up. I don't hear a lot of fear or trepidation here or a lot of other places, and from that sentiment sense it warrants a lot of caution. Anytime you have huge reversals such as most indices had today, the lows are often retested and it can be an agonizing situation. Lets hope that doesn't happen because 1)The lows are wayyyy down there. 2) It could literally take weeks or even months for a retest (or two). The retest of the 1998 mini crash shook out more people in October than the first plunge of August did. Now for GNET, wow.... it was scary if you were watching it, because when the nas. recovered about 450 points immediately from the bottom, GNET sat there and actually went down. It only recovered at the end (fortunately). The last time the nasdaq was at 3,650 (lows of the day) was on Dec. 16. GNET closed that day at $95. In no way does todays' late recovery mitigate the serious technical damage done to GNET. The 200 day average has been breached for the first time in well over a year, as has a very important trendline. The RSI has made lower highs for a year now. Now of course, that does not mean that the stock cannot go back up. By how much and what time frame though. That is unknowable. Something to keep in mind though, offhand, not to mention its penchant of underperforming on big nasdaq up days, is this: There is still an unfilled price gap from October down to $58-60. askresearch.com