To: harmonaronson who wrote (1190 ) 4/5/2000 7:48:00 AM From: High-Tech East Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2249
Barron's, April 3, 2000 'Sector Rotation Turns Off Tech Types' by Andrew Bary. I copied only the middle section about IPO lock-ups. (Ken Wilson aka High-Tech East)One of the factors depressing Internet Capital Group and many other hot initial public offerings from last year is selling by insiders following the end of so-called lock-up periods that generally require early-stage investors to wait six months after an IPO before unloading their shares. Back in January, less than 15% of Internet Capital Group's 260 million outstanding shares were in public hands. But 46 million shares became eligible for sale in February and another 45 million are up for grabs from March through May. Come June, nearly 96 million more shares can hit the market. Filings of potential insider sales are almost a daily event for Internet Capital Group. And since most insiders paid a fraction of the current market price for their stock -- Internet Capital Group went public in August at a split-adjusted $6 a share -- they probably don't care much if the stock is trading at 200 or 100. Many still are reaping a fortune. Steve Galbraith, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein, recently estimated that 2.4 billion shares of stock from 1999 IPOs should become eligible for sale in the second quarter. Many investors and strategists focus on IPOs in determining how much new stock must be absorbed by the market. But a far greater source of stock is probably coming from the end to lock-up restictions. To be sure, not all insiders eligible to sell stock actually unload their shares when the lock-ups expire. Indeed, the real test of the valuations of many highflyers from the 1999 IPO crop is coming as the market starts bearing the weight of large amounts of new stock. As Barron's IPO cover story last December 13 pointed out, many companies sell just 10%-15% of their outstanding shares in IPOs, and the thin float inflates their initial valuations. One of the most egregious examples was the IPO of Palm, which sold just 4% of its outstanding stock when it came public a month ago. Palm, whose shares were priced at 38, initially soared as high as 165, but has since nearly made a complete round-trip. Its shares fell 12 to 44 7/8 last week, hitting their lowest level since the IPO. 3Com, Palm's former parent, still owns over 500 million Palm shares, which it plans to distribute to its holders this summer. Those considering the purchase of Palm might do well to look at 3Com instead because the latter, at 55 5/8, trades for less than the value of its Palm stake. Each 3Com share controls more than 1.5 Palm shares. Among the companies whose 1999 IPO lock-up restrictions are set to expire in April are Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, World Wrestling Federation, Sycamore Networks and Breakaway Solutions, according to IPOLockup.com, a Website that tracks expiring lock-ups. Many pros play the lock-up game by selling short stocks whose lock-ups are about to end in the hope that insider sales will put pressure on the stocks. While IPOs took center stage in 1999, lock-ups may capture investors' attention this year.