To: Scarecrow who wrote (17490 ) 4/5/2000 2:52:00 AM From: adsorb Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
i am not comfortable with the TA to follow, but: 1. we punched thru 100 dma, last 2 days, both closed down 2. came down very rapidly from 151.5 recent high to low of 89, 4 weeks 3. lean very heavily on 2 issues: enga&navi, over 50% of public holdings 4. enga&navi have come down by more than 2/3 from recent top 5. enga$navi need to create some level of support 6. other important issues equally spongy: vcnt, vntr, silk 7. similar punch thru of 100 dma, in mid june, reversed promptly on slightly higher volume, to about 40% higher level in 1 week; more than 60% in about 1 mo. 8. enga issued on 7/20/99 about 1 wk after cmgi summer slide began, ending in support at 200 dma and coincidentally previous june low 9. alta is coming soon, but its probably already priced in; cmgi did not get an immediate boost due to new issues; in cases of enga & navi it did happen to ramp up for the previous month, without a drop 10. now its going to have to form a base somewhere 115-120; perhaps to 125 if 100 dma is of any value, and a lot will depend on enga & navi recovery 11. if alta issues and ramps to 100$ (110Msh) that would probably boost cmgi by an additional 20$; however i would expect 50-60 in this climate for a little bit of time. 12. enga & navi may have been sharply affected (among other reasons) by rapid devolvement of margin in the last 3 days, with practically reductions by half - i sure hope so(margin mostly lately) - a 50% bounce back, by them alone, would give cmgi hope for about +12$ in spite of these points hope springs eternal that cmgi will bounce up tommorrow along with everyone else, some more, some less, but up