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To: Charles Tutt who wrote (30157)4/5/2000 12:18:00 AM
From: JC Jaros  Respond to of 64865
 
Pros don't have *any 'testes', Charles. <g> -JCJ



To: Charles Tutt who wrote (30157)4/5/2000 7:25:00 PM
From: fuzzymath  Respond to of 64865
 
The "test the bottom" notion isn't derived from my mathematical analysis, good point, Charles. The term "pros" may be quaint -- but I do think the big herd-like movements out of one sector and into another are less likely to be independent investors. Independent investors trade stocks more than market sectors (now there's a generalization for you, but it's true, isn't it?). Pension fund managers trade infrequently, but when they do the market feels it.

Of course, I have no evidence for any of this except my own observations and articles I read ...

There is a second pattern that sometimes follows a day with a huge dip and a huge comeback. The market jerks around for a while, dips a bit, volume fades, the market begins to rise a little, on rising volume, and then everything turns OK. This is pretty common too, if you look at historical stock market index charts.

But yesterday's plummet (NASDAQ down a nasty bear market 28% from its high at yesterday's low) was so huge, the "test the low" pattern seems more likely to me.

Note that this does not apply to individual stocks, necessarily -- I'm talking about the market index patterns...

Kevin