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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pallisard who wrote (19022)	4/5/2000 5:33:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Pallisard, the current market cap of VLNC is around $675 MM, few months ago, the market was willing to look 5 years ahead and value VLNC based on its potential. I think that what we had in the last two weeks, while not yet a bear market, is a prelude to a bear market (which I have said for quite sometime, I would expect within few months after the elections, whoever wins). I still expect a very solid summer rally, and expect VLNC to challenge the $24 to $26.5 area, if that is challenged successfully, then we could still see the mid thirty by election day. If VLNC put on the table a $50 MM or larger PO from a portable PC maker, then there is room for your scenario, but if all we get are one or two additional $5 to 10 MM orders, IMHO, I think that my scenario will more than accurately reflect reality. Since we went to $13 on the last trip down (which I posted here as a "move exaggeration" rather than actual breach of the all important $15 level), I think that a retest of that level is more likely in the next six weeks than $30. That general scenario was painted by me before we broke the $26.5 and when I still owned the stock as well as yesterday, I believe when I owned the stock, so I do not think that my scenario is affected by the fact that I own or not the stock. Zeev

To: Pallisard who wrote (19022)	4/5/2000 5:35:00 PM
From: Dennis V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

I might agree with Zeev except that I don't believe Valence's downward move was truly in concert with the many other high fliers which have declined recently. It gave the appearance of being so because of what, IMO, was a coordinated attack made possible by the settlement shares. Nevertheless, there is a temporary change in what the pundits call "sentiment". This has been related mostly to the declining prospects of the internet stocks which ballooned to incredible valuations. The money leaving the internets has to go somewhere and I don't think this type of investor will be happy sitting in bonds or shave cream for very long. The telecommunications sector is a growth sector which is not quite like the internet. It is very probable that many of these stocks can rebound in accordance with earnings prospects, Valence included as a peripheral player which is rapidly developing legs.