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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (45157)	4/5/2000 9:15:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Michael (Philip?) , as far as responsible investing goes, a Nasdaq at a 200 or so p/e is not an 'investment' vehicle at all, least of all of the responsible sort. it is a glorified casino instead. there are however no doubt stocks available that would fit into a responsible investment strategy. nonetheless, for any serious long term investor, the risk profile of this stock market (i.e. mostly the high p/e index stocks, and that includes stalwarts like GE and KO, MSFT, CSCO, etc...)is indeed at a rather daunting juncture. what investors tend to forget at the tail end of every secular bull market is that there are such things as secular bear markets as well...Japan is living proof that they have not been abolished in modern times. while it is admittedly hard to pinpoint the exact time when such a secular bear market might begin, and indeed how long it will last, market history provides some rather sobering examples regarding possible duration, and market internals provide evidence that for the majority of stocks a devastating bear market has already begun about two years ago. it is of course not in the interest of any securities firm to relate these facts to clients... they are also caught up in the spirit of the moment, that allows not for reason to intrude on the glowing forecasts. remember, things look the brightest when it is time to sell, and the bleakest when it is time to buy. for a trader, days like the ones we have recently seen are a welcome opportunity to make some money in a short time span. for an investor, they are a warning signal... regards, hb